[Interview] Nuclear expert sees “small window of opportunity” for dialogue in Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s address

Posted on : 2018-01-03 17:38 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Daryl Kimball says Kim’s remarks show realization that a conflict would lead to the end of North Korea
Daryl G. Kimball
Daryl G. Kimball

Daryl G. Kimball is the Executive Director of the Arms Control Association. Kimball is a renowned expert on nuclear proliferation issues, and has been recognized by National Journal as one of ten key individuals whose ideas will help shape the policy debate over nuclear weapons in the future. He was interviewed by the Hankyoreh on Jan. 1 to discuss his thoughts on Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s address.

Hankyoreh (Hani): Could you tell me your overall sense of Kim Jong-un's New Year’s address?

Kimball (Kimball): For his domestic and international audiences, Kim clearly wants to project strength and to claim that he has achieved a key national defense goal: creating a strategic nuclear retaliatory strike capability. Given the recent series of ICBM flight tests, Kim Jong-un’s claim that he has achieved the capability to strike back at the U.S. with nuclear weapons in the event of a U.S. attack is not a surprise. Even though North Korea does not yet have an operational ICBM force, Kim wants to make it clear that any attack on North Korea will be met with nuclear retaliation not just against South Korea but perhaps also against the United States.

However, his call for urgent talks with South Korea to discuss sending North Korean Olympians to Pyeongchang and his call for "concerted efforts to defuse military tension and create a peaceful environment” suggest he is also realizes that the risk of a conflict with the United States and its allies South Korea and Japan has grown and that any such conflict must be avoided as it would lead to the destruction of the regime in North Korea.

Hani: Could Kim’s address help to de-escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula during the lead-up to the Pyeongchang Olympics?

Kimball: Kim’s remarks suggest there is a small window of opportunity to commence a diplomatic dialogue. Whether that opportunity is realized or not depends very much on how U.S. and South Korean leaders respond in the coming days. In my view, it we are to reduce the danger of a nuclear conflict and the full-scale deployment of an operational North Korean strategic deterrent force, President Moon Jae-in and other international leaders must press the Trump administration to redouble efforts to engage North Korea in direct talks and cease any further explicit or implicit threats of military action against the North.

Hani: Why would Kim send a conciliatory gesture toward South Korea at this time?

Kimball: For all of his boasting of being able to strike any target in the United States with nuclear-armed ICBMs, Kim is very aware that there is a risk of a conflict with the United States, and he also realizes that any such conflict must be avoided as it would lead to the destruction of North Korea. As President Moon Jae-in has suggested, the upcoming Olympics provide an important opportunity to break the ice and to begin discussions with the North Koreans on mutual steps that reduce the chances of miscalculation and war.

Hani: Do you see any signs in Kim’s address that of willingness to begin a dialogue with United States?

Kimball: There are no explicit signs from Kim in his New Year’s address that he is interested in direct talks with the United States. North Korea has made it clear that talks about their nuclear program are not possible if the US maintains what North Korea calls its “hostile policy."

However, North Korea could very well agree to direct talks with Washington if there is a delay of the planned US-Korea “Foal-Eagle” military exercises [scheduled for February] and an agreement to halt further US military aircraft maneuvers and overflights around North Korea’s borders. For the US to agree to such talks, North Korea would have to refrain from conducting further ballistic missile and nuclear tests.

Hani: How should the Moon and Trump administrations respond to North Korea’s message?

Kimball: The Moon Jae-in government’s response to Kim’s address is appropriate and smart. Kim is finally responding to Moon’s call for a North-South dialogue and for making the Pyeongchang Games the “Peace Games.”

Mr. Trump, for his part, must choose his words carefully. The U.S. government should recognize that North Korea does have a significant nuclear retaliatory strike capability and recognize that there is no viable “military solution” to denuclearizing North Korea. In addition, the U.S. government must recognize that sanctions pressure and better sanctions enforcement can help slow North Korea’s nuclear and missile advances, but it will not stop North Korea from continuing its work to deploy an operational nuclear strike force.

The public response from the U.S. government should be that it is open to direct talks with North Korea regarding issues of mutual concern and it should refrain from making any further explicit or implicit threats of military action against the North, which only serve to harden the resolve of the North Koreans’ to build up their nuclear forces.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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