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President Moon Jae-in

After South Korean President Moon Jae-in responded to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s proposal for a third inter-Korean summit by suggesting that they “create the right conditions to make that happen,” there has been a brisk debate about what those conditions might be. There are no small number of hurdles that remain to be cleared.

One condition for the third summit about which experts are in agreement is that North Korea needs to show flexibility on the nuclear issue. “For there to be a summit, North Korea will need to state its position on its nuclear program. The North would at least need to declare a moratorium on its nuclear weapon and missile tests for President Moon to have the leeway to hold a summit,” said Cho Sung-ryul, chief of research for the Institute for National Security Strategy.

After launching the Hwasong-15 missile in Nov. 2017, North Korea declared the completion of its nuclear force and said that it would continue pursuing its “two track” policy of nuclear and economic development. Though the North has repeatedly and emphatically declared that it will not negotiate denuclearization, experts believe that it might be willing to sit down with the US if the rewards were tangible, such as the US scrapping what North Korea calls its “policy of hostility” or repealing sanctions against the North. But considering that Pyongyang is unlikely to offer a gesture about denuclearization at the current moment, an announcement that it is halting nuclear weapon and missile tests might be taken as a positive signal by South Korea and the US.

Condition 2: Contact between North Korea and the US

Both of the previous inter-Korean summits, in 2000 and 2007, took place when trilateral relations between South Korea, North Korea and the US were in a virtuous cycle. This is one of the reasons that experts emphasize cooperation between South Korea and the US. When asked during a recent interview about what measures the North would have to take for sanctions to be eased, US Vice President Mike Pence reportedly said that even he does not know and that that is why talks are necessary. This is thought to be basically consistent with the remarks made by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson at the end of last year that he is ready to meet with North Korea without any preconditions.

But what is reportedly exasperating the South Korean government is the US government’s insistence that it will not make the first move. This is leading to suggestions that South Korea should send a special envoy to find a way for North Korea and the US to make contact. “South Korea has no choice but to serve as a mediator, even if it’s not in the driver’s seat,” said Koo Kab-woo, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, who added that “this is not a simple question.”

The “peace” brought by the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics will find itself in a precarious position when the Olympic Truce comes to an end on Mar. 25. Such predictions are lent credence by the fact that the South Korea-US military exercises, which were delayed for the duration of the Olympic Games, are scheduled to resume in April. “The South Korea-US military exercises have to be adjusted,” Koo said.

In fact, figures in and around the Blue House are talking about shortening or scaling down the exercises. Another idea is for South Korea and the US to take a “low-key” approach to the military exercises, just as North Korea did with the military parade on its Korean People’s Army Foundation Day on Feb. 8. “The US could conduct the exercises so as not to provoke North Korea by refraining from [deploying strategic assets or] making flights near the military demarcation line, and South Korea could also greatly reduce the scale of its involvement,” said Cho.

Condition 4: The summit itself could be used to “create the right conditions”

While the South Korean government should try to mediate contact between North Korea and the US, others argue, this need not be taken as a necessary and sufficient condition. Since the summit has been proposed so early in Moon’s term in office, Seoul could well try to use the current momentum of inter-Korean dialogue to create its own starting point for denuclearization.

“After the North Korean nuclear program became an issue, a virtuous cycle in trilateral relations between South Korea, North Korea and the US was a requirement for inter-Korean relations. We should make every effort to bring about a virtuous cycle [between the three parties], but even if that doesn’t work, I don’t think that means we can’t have a summit,” said Kim Yeon-cheol, a professor at Inje University.

Under such a scenario, Kim explained that South and North Korea could hold a summit in order to contain the situation on the Korean Peninsula and prevent tensions from rising there while also creating the conditions for a virtuous cycle between South Korea, North Korea and the US with the goal of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue.

By Kim Ji-eun and Noh Ji-won, staff reporters

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