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The inter-Korean summit in April will be held at the House of Peace on the South Korean side of the Joint Security Area in Panmunjeom. The venue is shown on Jan. 9 during senior level talks between South and North to discuss the logistics of North Korea’s participation at the Pyeongchang Olympics. (Photo Pool)

Preparations for upcoming inter-Korean and North Korea-US summits are bringing a swirl of dialogue around the Korean Peninsula. A summit between Seoul and Washington is being talked about as a stepping stone toward the inter-Korean summit in April and North Korea-US summit in May, while other North Korea-China, North Korea-Japan, South Korea-China, South Korea-Japan, and South Korea-North Korea-Japan dialogues are being explored.

The recent series of dialogue activities around the peninsula is seen as related to the close ties between a resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue and establishment of a Korean Peninsula peace regime. When the peace regime matter is viewed in larger terms as representing an end to the cold war in Northeast Asia, it also involves China, Japan, and Russia in addition to South and North Korea and the US. In that sense, dialogues among the different parties are an inevitability.

“In terms of the kind of regime security guarantees North Korea wants in exchange for denuclearizing, the most likely scenario involves guarantees not just by South and North Korea and the US but also by China, Russia, and Japan,” said Institute for National Security Strategy senior research fellow Cho Sung-ryul. Adding further momentum to the meetings are the overlapping diplomatic and security interests of South and North Korea and countries like China and Japan.

At the Blue House, the push for a South Korea-US summit is clear. The summit is expected take place in between the inter-Korean summit in April and the North Korea-US summit in May. After the first meeting of the inter-Korean summit preparatory committee on Mar. 16, Blue House chief of staff Im Jong-seok said, “If the North Korea-US summit is held a certain length of time after the inter-Korean summit, then it may be a good idea to have South Korea-US talks at least at the working level over key issues [between the South Korea and US leaders].” With his remarks, Im outlined a scenario in which President Moon Jae-in would first participate in the inter-Korean summit before discussing the outcome with US President Donald Trump and preparing for the North Korea-US summit.

The Blue House is also open to the possibility for summits with Japan and China.

“Once we have schedules set for the inter-Korean summit in April and North Korea-US summit in May, we may put a South Korea-US summit in between, and there could be a schedule of South Korea-US and South Korea-China summits afterwards,” a Blue House senior official told reporters on Mar. 18. In a telephone conversation on Mar. 16, Moon and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed that a trilateral summit with China should be held as soon as possible and declared plans to consider a Japan visit by Moon in the near future.

The dramatic transformation from Japan has drawn particular attention. Abe had been at odds with Moon as recently as their meeting during his visit last month for the Pyeongchang Olympics, when he stressed that South Korea’s joint military exercises with the US “must go ahead on schedule.” But when National Intelligence Service director Suh Hoon visited his official residence on Tokyo on Mar. 13, Abe said he “tip[s] my hat to President Moon Jae-in’s leadership.”

The possibility of a summit with North Korea is also being raised in Japan. In his Mar. 16 conversation with Moon, Abe voiced his hopes for dialogue between Pyongyang and Tokyo, referencing the “Pyongyang Declaration” by his predecessor Junichiro Koizumi in Sept. 2002.

The turnaround from Tokyo appears to stem from fears that a single-minded focus on sanctions could result in Japan becoming isolated amid rapid developments in dialogue around the peninsula. Another concern is that Tokyo could find itself unable to bring up the issue of abducted Japanese nationals in North Korea on the diplomatic stage. Indeed, Foreign Minister Taro Kono made an effort to tie the abductee issue to developments on the peninsula in a Mar. 17 meeting in Washington with his South Korean counterpart Kang Kyung-wha, expressing his “hope for a resolution to issues between North Korea and Japan as well as inter-Korean relations progress, including the matter of Japanese abductees.”