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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping prior to their summit at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Mar. 26. The photo was issued by Chinese state media on Mar. 28. (Xinhua)

A surprise summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly took place on Mar. 27. This was a dramatic development at a sensitive time before the inter-Korean summit next month and the North Korea-US summit in May. This is taken to mean a restoration of North Korea and China’s traditionally friendly relations, which had been strained since Kim Jong-un came to power in late 2011. It also appears to signal that the mood for dialogue on the Korean Peninsula that gained momentum during the Pyeongchang Olympics is expanding into wide-ranging dialogue between the various related players, including South Korea, North Korea, the US and China. The big question is how what the renewed atmosphere for dialogue, reconciliation and coexistence portends for the future of the Korean Peninsula.

Kim’s surprise visit to China and his summit with Xi signify that seven years of continuing discord between the two sides have finally come to an end. The last time the two countries held a summit was when Kim and Xi’s predecessors – Kim Jong-il and Hu Jintao – met in May 2011. Significantly, relations between North Korea and China have reportedly been rocky since Kim took control of the North in Dec. 2011. Pyongyang has been displeased with Beijing’s support of a series of sanctions resolutions against North Korea by the UN Security Council, while Beijing has been unhappy with Pyongyang for ratcheting up tensions by carrying out nuclear tests and missile launches. Kim’s visit to China is taken to mean that the two sides have ended the uneasiness between them that continued for seven years and have restored their traditional relations.

Following recent plans for an inter-Korean summit and a potential North Korea-US summit, there had been cautious predictions about the possibility of the North and China holding talks at the highest level. Both North Korea and China find themselves in a position where they have no choice but to rely on each other. It is critical for China to improve its relations with the North so that it can snap out of its feeling of helplessness about its failure to have any kind of effect on the changing dynamics on the Korean Peninsula. The North needs China’s support so that it can manage the risks it will encounter in a transitional period of new dialogue.

In fact, restoring North Korea-China relations is expected to give Kim more bargaining power in his summits with South Korea in April and with the US in May. As the US demands North Korea’s definite denuclearization, Kim needs the US to guarantee his regime’s security and normalize relations with the North. Given this position, he may have concluded that he could use restoring relations with China as leverage to strengthen his position at the bargaining table.

“You could say that North Korea is making some fairly sophisticated moves. It appears to be sending the message that ‘we’ve got China’ leading up to its talks with the US,” said a senior official at the Blue House.

With US President Donald Trump recently cranking up pressure on North Korea by appointing hardliners to important positions – such as John Bolton as White House national security advisor – Kim Jong-un has decided he cannot simply assume that his summit with Trump will go well. While holding several contingency plans in mind, some analysts say, Kim chose to visit China to ensure he has the backing of his allies. Kim may have considered that China could help him counter the intense backlash from the US that could be waiting if the summit does not produce any results and even the possibility of resuming economic cooperation with China if the talks do go well and lead to the end of sanctions against the North.

Abruptly broadening the scope of dialogue to include South Korea, the US and China also enables North Korea to pressure Japan, which is feeling more isolated, to engage in dialogue with the North.

“From China’s point of view, there needs to be an aggressive response to the changing dynamics on the Korean Peninsula, while from North Korea’s point of view, China and the North need each other to strengthen their position in negotiations with the US,” said Cho Sung-ryul, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy.

“Historically speaking, there have always been aspects of North Korea-China relations in which their strategic interests coincide. We have been talking about trilateral dialogue between South Korea, North Korea and the US, but trilateral dialogue between South Korea, North Korea and China is important, too,” said Kim Yeon-cheol, professor at Inje University.

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

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