hankyoreh

The KCNA reported on Apr. 21 that North Korea was shutting down its nuclear test site at Punggye-ri following a vote taken during a made in a plenary session of the Central Committee of the Korean Workers‘ Party. The photo shows a test of the Hwasong-15 ICBM that took place last November. (Yonhap News)

North Korea has officially announced that it is suspending additional nuclear tests and test launches of ballistic missiles. The North has preemptively forfeited its “future nuclear card” to demonstrate its commitment to denuclearization leading up to the inter-Korean and North Korea-US summits.

There are two sets of three “nuclear cards” that must be dealt with in the process of North Korea’s denuclearization. In terms of weapon systems, these are fissile materials, which are the raw material for nuclear weapons; assembled and completed nuclear warheads; and the ballistic missiles used to deliver those nuclear warheads. In terms of timing, these can be divided into already completed nuclear weapons (“past nuclear weapons”), ongoing programs related to using these fissile materials to produce nuclear weapons (“present nuclear weapons”) and nuclear and missile tests down the road designed to develop and upgrade nuclear weapons (“future nuclear weapons”).

Concerns about “future nuclear weapons” were eased by the announcement about halting additional nuclear and missile testing that was made in a plenary session of the Central Committee of the Korean Workers' Party. Though North Korea has offered a moratorium on nuclear weapons and missile testing during previous negotiations, it appears to have taken this step before the upcoming negotiations begin in order to brighten their prospects of success.

“By giving up future nuclear weapons prior to the negotiations, North Korea has completed its half of the so-called freeze-for-freeze,” said Koo Kab-woo, professor at the University of North Korean Studies, referring to a proposal for the US and South Korea to halt their joint military exercises at the same time as the North halts its nuclear weapon and missile testing.

“Since North Korea even promised not to use nuclear weapons preemptively and not to transfer or spread nuclear weapons, it has effectively ticked all the boxes desired by the US,” Koo said.

Once negotiations between North Korea and the US for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula begin, they are expected to focus on the procedure and method for dismantling the North’s “current nuclear weapons” and “past nuclear weapons.” Even if the two sides reach a grand bargain through these negotiations, the actual process of denuclearization is not something that can be completed in a short period of time.

In order to halt and shut down the ongoing nuclear program and to dismantle the finished nuclear weapons in the North’s possession, a team of observers from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) must be dispatched to the North for a process of inspection and verification. This process would involve several stages: the North reporting its nuclear facilities; these facilities being closed, rendered inoperable, and torn down; and finally dismantling the nuclear weapons themselves.

There are diverging assessments of North Korea’s “past” and “present” nuclear capabilities. In documents released in July 2017, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) estimated that North Korea could assemble a maximum of 60 nuclear warheads with the fissile material it had produced and that it had succeeded at designing nuclear warheads small enough to be loaded on ballistic missiles.

But according to a report on North Korean nuclear capabilities in 2018 recently released by the US Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the fissile material that North Korea had produced by the end of 2017 amounted to 20-40kg of plutonium and 250-500kg of highly enriched uranium. This organization estimated that North Korea has the ability to produce enough fissile material to make 6-7 nuclear warheads a year and that it has completed 16-32 nuclear warheads thus far.

In the actual negotiations, not only the fissile material and nuclear warheads but also the ballistic missiles that are their delivery systems will inevitably receive considerable attention. North Korea has the Rodong missile (with a range of 1,200 km) that can reach Japan; the Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (3,300-4,500km) that can reach Guam; and the Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (13,000km) that is believed to be capable of striking the US mainland.

“Shutting down the nuclear test site at Punggye-ri in Gilju County, North Hamgyong Province is a step toward disabling the North’s nuclear program, which moves the North’s commitment to denuclearization from the realm of rhetoric to reality. Since this was announced along with a declaration about focusing on economic development, this represents a clear change of course, and the dismantlement of the North’s ‘past’ and ‘present’ nuclear weapons will be the result of the negotiations,” said Cho Sung-ryul, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy.

By Jung In-hwan and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporters

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]