[News Analysis] Swift denuclearization versus grand reciprocal measures

Posted on : 2018-05-15 18:15 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Pompeo and Bolton lay out details for denuclearization prior to summit
US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will hold a historic North Korea-US summit on June 12 in Singapore.
US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will hold a historic North Korea-US summit on June 12 in Singapore.

Since the North Korea-US summit was scheduled to take place in Singapore on June 12, the two sides have jumped into negotiations about the summit’s agenda, allowing the outline of the US’s negotiating strategy to gradually come into view. The American strategy can be summarized as the following kind of “grand bargain”: if North Korea takes bold and swift measures to denuclearize, such as by handing over its nuclear weapons, the US will also take bold and swift reciprocal measures on private-sector investment and a security guarantee for the North Korean regime.

During appearances by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Fox News and CBS and by White House National Security Advisor John Bolton on ABC and CNN on May 13, the two officials described in detail the US’s position about the summit agenda.

When asked about denuclearization, which is the core agenda of the North Korea-US summit, Bolton said, “I think the implementation of the decision means getting rid of all the nuclear weapons, dismantling them, taking them to Oak Ridge, Tennessee.”

This constitutes a demand for North Korea’s “past” nuclear weapons – that is, the ones it has already built – to be completely dismantled and shipped to the US. This is the biggest point of contention in the negotiations and is expected to be the most serious obstacle. North Korea has treated its current nuclear arsenal as the last line of defense for its security and has refused to disclose that arsenal to its adversaries.

North Korea’s handover of nuclear weapons as litmus test of denuclearization

The US has regarded North Korea’s handover of its current nuclear weapons as a litmus test of its commitment to denuclearization and is reportedly pondering the idea of pushing the North to include this in the summit agreement. Bolton went a step further by saying that complete denuclearization “means getting rid of the uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing capabilities,” making clear that the US intends to also eliminate the North’s ongoing nuclear program.

Bolton said that North Korea must release the locations of all of its nuclear and missile facilities and open them up to inspectors. “The International Atomic Energy Agency will have a role” in the verification of uranium enrichment and reprocessing facilities and other ongoing components of the nuclear program, Bolton said, and “the actual deconstruction of the [. . .] nuclear weapons I think will be by the United States, perhaps with the assistance from others.”

According to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the IAEA cannot participate in the destruction of nuclear weapons, which is the prerogative of the nuclear weapon states on the UN Security Council.

While ballistic missiles, chemical and biological weapons and Japanese abducted by North Korea could all be part of the agenda, Bolton emphasized, denuclearization would be the central issue. Considering that the North has strongly opposed expanding the summit agenda beyond denuclearization and ICBMs, this could be another point of controversy.

Along with this, the US unveiled a plan to guarantee the North Korean regime’s security and to help its economy reach a level of prosperity that is on par with South Korea as the reward for North Korea moving forward with full denuclearization.

Providing economic aid and guaranteeing regime security in exchange for nuclear weapons

In exchange for North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons, Pompeo said, it would get “our finest – our entrepreneurs, our risk-takers, our capital providers” and the “private capital” that they would bring. This is taken to mean that the US would allow American private capital to be invested directly in North Korea by easing or ending sanctions on the North. But Pompeo also said “it won’t be US taxpayers,” making clear that the US federal government would not be providing direct aid.

Pompeo noted that “they need enormous amounts of electricity in North Korea” and that the US wants “to work with them to develop infrastructure.” He also said that support from American agriculture and technology could help North Koreans “eat meat and have healthy lives.” Pompeo emphasized that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un “shares” these goals.

The second “carrot” is the security guarantee. “We will have to provide security assurances to be sure. This has been a tradeoff that has been pending for 25 years. No president has ever put America in a position where the North Korean leadership thought that [a security guarantee] was truly possible,” Pompeo said, indicating that the US intends to give North Korea a bold security guarantee.

In regard to North Korea’s proposal for a gradual and simultaneous solution, Pompeo said, “I think Chairman Kim understands [. . .] that this is going to have to be different and big and special, and something that has never been undertaken before.” This would appear to mean that Kim is also on board with the general idea of a bold and swift swap.

As for the sequence of the reciprocal measures for denuclearization, Bolton said, “We need to see implementation, and I don’t [. . .] think the present policy [of maximum pressure is] going to change until that happens.”

Since it would take a substantial amount of time to actually finish verifying North Korea’s complete denuclearization, a source in Washington explained, Bolton’s remarks mean that relaxing or rolling back sanctions and establishing diplomatic relations between North Korea and the US could take place when the North hands over its nuclear weapons.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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