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South Korean President Moon Jae-in shakes hands with US President Trump at the White House on May 22. (Blue House photo pool)

During his summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in on May 22, US President Donald Trump unveiled his vision for the North Korea-US summit, which is scheduled to take place in Singapore on June 12.

Trump held open the possibility of accepting the North’s gradual denuclearization – something he has stanchly opposed – while asserting once more his support for a security guarantee for Pyongyang and for the North’s economic development.

Prior to his summit with President Moon, Trump acknowledged that dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue in one fell swoop might not be feasible and emphasized achieving denuclearization in the shortest timeframe possible.

When asked whether denuclearization should be an “all-in-one” or could be incremental, Trump said, “It would certainly be better if it were all in one. Does it have to be? I don't think I want to totally commit myself [that it has to be].” [. . .] “But all in one would be a lot better. [. . .] You know, you do have some physical reasons that it may not be able to do exactly that. So for physical reasons, over a very short period of time. Essentially, that would be all in one,” he went on to say.

The remarks suggest that Trump could consider denuclearization as being “all-in-one” even if the actual implementation takes some time.

Trump’s remarks are taken as acknowledging that he has no choice but adopt an implementation method that is partially gradual because of the immensity of North Korea’s nuclear program and the complication of verifying its dismantlement, even as Trump adheres to his original principle of “swift and compressed denuclearization.” The New York Times also reported that Trump had walked back his previous demand for North Korea to resolve the issue all at once, which opens the possibility of the gradual dismantlement of the North’s nuclear weapons program.

Trump also appears to have shot down the Libya model advocated by White House National Security Advisor John Bolton, according to which the North would have to give up its nuclear weapons before receiving any rewards.

South Korea and China have suggested a swift solution that is both gradual and simultaneous in order to bridge the gap between the US, which wants denuclearization to be swift, and North Korea, which wants it to be gradual and simultaneous.

Trump’s remarks suggest that he has moved a little closer toward this compromise position. But since the Trump administration has attacked gradual and step-by-step solutions as the failed policies of previous administrations, it is unlikely to accept such a solution explicitly and openly. Cho Sung-ryul, senior research fellow for the Institute for National Security Strategy, believes that Trump has “opened the way for gradual implementation of what is basically an all-in-one solution.”

Now that Trump is showing some slight changes in his position, North Korea’s first tangible steps toward denuclearization and the US’s reaction to this are likely to be the determining factors in the upcoming negotiations. The US is expected to ask the North to take action on its existing nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) that could symbolize “swift and compressed denuclearization,” while North Korea is also expected to respond to this in a bid to gain substantial rewards in the areas of security and economy.

Trump made another pledge about the security guarantee and the economic aid that will be available to North Korea after denuclearization. “We will guarantee [Kim Jong-un’s] safety. And we've talked about that from the beginning. He will be safe, he will be happy,” Trump said.

“President Moon and President Trump were talking about how North Korea’s anxiety about complete denuclearization must ultimately be connected with regime security and that this makes it necessary to talk about a security guarantee that can give the North certainty,” said a senior official at the Blue House after Moon and Trump’s summit.

According to Koo Kab-woo, professor at the University of North Korean Studies, these security measures could include “placing a physical ban on the deployment of controversial nuclear and strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula, offering assurances about a peace treaty, establishing diplomatic relations and scrapping the Trading with the Enemy Act.”

In regard to the economic aid that could be described as the second reward for denuclearization, Trump said he had spoken to South Korea, China and Japan and that “they will be willing to help and, I believe, invest very, very large sums of money into helping to make North Korea great.”

“We helped South Korea. We have spent [. . .] trillions of dollars over many, many years. [. . .] And South Korea is one of the most incredible countries,” Trump said, emphasizing that South and North Korea were the “same people.”

“I do have a real sense that [Kim Jong-un] would find American investment, American technology, American know-how of real value to his people. [. . .] If we get this right and we get the denuclearization right, [. . .] America would be quite capable of [making] life better for the North Korean people,” US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said during a press conference after the summit.

Interestingly, Trump did not mention the US as being one of the countries that would invest in North Korea. “If the US allows North Korea to join the IMF [International Monetary Fund], it would enable the North to receive overseas development aid and other forms of international investment. The remarks suggest that the sanctions could be lifted to allow investment by other countries,” said Kim Joon-hyung, professor at Handong Global University.

Trump also mentioned the unification of the Korean Peninsula: “They’ll get together and you’ll go back to one Korea. And that would be okay with me, too, as long as they both wanted that.” This was the first time that Trump has spoken of unification, but the statement appeared to be mostly rhetorical.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent, and Kim Ji-eun and Noh Ji-won, staff reporters

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