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US President Donald Trump (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un

The cancellation of the summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that had been scheduled to be held in Singapore on June 12 is expected to throw affairs on the Korean Peninsula into disarray for quite some time to come. The valley may prove to be as deep as the mountain was high.

The South Korean government, which had been in charge of “guiding” North Korea and the US, also finds itself in an awkward position and faces considerable pressure to keep the situation under control.

Trump’s announcement of the cancellation came as quite a surprise. Though the prospects of the North Korea-US summit had been roiled by remarks made by North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan on May 16 about the “possibility of reconsidering the summit,” this turmoil was apparently settling down after South Korean President Moon Jae-in visited the US for a summit with Trump on May 23.

While Trump had also hinted at the possibility of the summit being canceled or delayed prior to his one-on-one meeting with Moon, an optimistic vibe had returned following their meeting.

During an episode of Fox and Friends broadcast by Fox News on May 24, Trump even said that “physically, a phase-in may be a little bit necessary,” hinting that he might compromise with the North on the method of denuclearization. This was the first time that Trump had explicitly used the phrase “phase-in.”

Chronologically speaking, it can be inferred that the pessimistic mood in the US administration was triggered by a statement on May 24 by North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui that took issue with hardline remarks against the North by US Vice President Mike Pence. “I will put forward a suggestion to our supreme leadership for reconsidering the DPRK-US summit,” Choe said in the statement.

There was presumably quite a bit of displeasure inside the Trump administration that North Korea was continuing its pressure offensive even after Trump “expressed his sincerity” about harsh remarks by White House National Security Advisor John Bolton. Despite Trump’s desire to move ahead with the summit, his advisors may have felt concerned about how public opinion would be affected by the appearance of making too many concessions to the North.

The content of the statements by Kim Kye-gwan and Choe Son-hui could have given the US government reason to doubt the North’s commitment to denuclearization. American officials may have feared that the Singapore summit would not result in as much progress on denuclearization as they had hoped and concluded that this could have significant ramifications for Trump during the midterm elections coming up in November.

In connection with this, CNN even reported on May 23 that the Trump administration wanted to hold another high-level meeting with North Korea prior to the summit in Singapore to receive assurances that Kim Jong-un will give up his nuclear program. A senior official in the US government told CNN that more dialogue about Trump and Kim’s agenda would be necessary to determine if the summit would be helpful. This suggests that officials in the Trump administration had remained skeptical about whether North Korea would take enough action on denuclearization during the summit to satisfy the US.

When asked about Trump’s announcement, Pence said that the US government had thought the summit was not likely to succeed. He added that the US had attempted to contact North Korea for several days to prepare for the Singapore summit, but that they had received no response from the North.

The fact that the cancellation of the North Korea-US summit coincided with the dismantlement of the North’s nuclear test ground at Punggye Village may be a source of mistrust between the two sides in the future. The North may protest that the US used the summit as leverage to extract the concessions it wanted. The fact that the US made a 180-degree turn after North Korea released three American nationals detained there is also likely to infuriate the North.

But there is still a possibility of North Korea-US talks resuming, though it would be difficult to say exactly when. For one thing, since Trump’s negotiating strategy shares the characteristics of real estate deals, he could always come back to the table “when the price is right.” Trump left open that possibility in the letter canceling the meeting, in which he wrote, “Some day, I look very much forward to meeting you.”

Even inside North Korea, it would be risky to let affairs on the Korean Peninsula deteriorate for too long, given the regime’s “strategic decision” to shift its focus to economic development. On the other hand, inter-Korean relations have entered a phase of flux, and North Korea and China could be brought even closer together. This incident aptly illustrates how difficult it is to resolve the distrust that has built up between North Korea and the US over the past 70 years.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]