[News analysis] Opportunity for the “talks of the century” in jeopardy due to bickering

Posted on : 2018-05-25 13:29 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Experts say demolition of nuclear test site would have brought summit halfway to success
The observation post near Tunnel 2 is blasted during the demolition of North Korea’s nuclear test first visible step toward the North’s “complete denuclearization at Punggye Village. (jphoto pool)
The observation post near Tunnel 2 is blasted during the demolition of North Korea’s nuclear test first visible step toward the North’s “complete denuclearization at Punggye Village. (jphoto pool)

Just as planned, North Korea held a ceremony on May 24 for the dismantlement of its “northern nuclear test ground” in a valley next to Mount Mantap, located in Punggye Village, Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province. This represented the voluntary demolition of the North Korean nuclear test site that had been described as the cradle of the North Korean nuclear arsenal that has rocked not only Northeast Asia but also the global nonproliferation regime.

The most practical significance of North Korea’s voluntary dismantlement of the Punggye Village nuclear test site was as a stepping stone to the summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump that was supposed to be held in Singapore on June 12. The prevailing view among experts both in South Korea and overseas was that the demolition would have brought the summit, if held as planned, more than halfway to success.

But hardline remarks made by US Vice President Mike Pence before the shutdown of the site triggered a statement by North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son in which Choi threatened to reconsider the summit, and that statement gave Trump an excuse to throw a wrench in the works.

In this case, words overpowered actions. It has not yet been confirmed whether North Korea made a miscalculation or whether some as yet unrevealed insurmountable obstacle appeared during the back-room negotiations between North Korea and the US, which have been interrupted for nearly two weeks now.

North Korea’s voluntary dismantlement of the nuclear test ground had originally been a positive step that provided a major political advantage both to Kim and Trump prior to the summit. For Trump, it served as a meaningful victory connected with the strategic goal of North Korea’s complete denuclearization. This was no small asset for Trump, who had been afflicted by pushback and resistance from Washington. The mainstream political establishment in the US was convinced that Trump, given his ignorance of foreign policy and security and the global strategy of the US, the world’s only superpower, would be taken to the cleaners if his business instincts convinced him to meet with Kim.

For Kim, the dismantlement of the site was a way to prove he was not lying when he said that “If the hostile policy and security threat to North Korea were eliminated, we would have no reason to possess nuclear weapons and denuclearization would be achievable” (during his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Dalian on May 7 and 8) and “If we build up trust with the US through frequent meetings and receive assurances about the end of the war and non-aggression, why would we endure the difficult life imposed by our possession of nuclear weapons?” (during the inter-Korean summit in Panmunjeom on Apr. 27). This hints at how much the attitudes and viewpoint of the international community could change, given suspicions about the sincerity of Kim’s talk about denuclearization.

 North Korean authorities allowed foreign reporters to observe the tunnel’s entrance. Tunnel 2 has conducted five of North Korea’s six nuclear tests to date. (photo pool)
North Korean authorities allowed foreign reporters to observe the tunnel’s entrance. Tunnel 2 has conducted five of North Korea’s six nuclear tests to date. (photo pool)

Dismantlement of test site “meaningful and pretty dramatic action”

“It’s true that shutting down the Punggye-ri test site does not prevent North Korea from ever testing again,” David Wright, a renowned American expert on nuclear weapons and missiles, told the New York Times. Even so, Wright called the shutdown “a meaningful and pretty dramatic action nonetheless.”

During the third plenary meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) on Apr. 20, Kim basically announced the end of North Korea’s “military first” line when he stated that the two-track course of building the economy alongside the nuclear program had achieved its historic goal. By way of implementing that, Kim declared the suspension of nuclear weapon tests and test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles as of Apr. 21 and announced the plan to shut down the Punggye Village test site “in order to transparently guarantee the suspension of nuclear tests.”

During the subsequent summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in at Panmunjeom on Apr. 27, Kim announced his plan to invite journalists and experts from South Korea and the US to attend the dismantlement of the nuclear test site in May, and on May 12, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry announced that the shutdown ceremony would be held from May 23 to 25 and that reporters from five countries (South Korea, the US, China, the UK and Russia) would be invited to cover the shutdown. The voluntary dismantlement of the nuclear test site on May 24 was also significant in that it shows the international community that the plenary meeting’s declaration of the end of the two-track line and its adoption of the new strategic line of “focusing all efforts on building a socialist economy” represents a serious change in course that is backed by action.

“There are no other nuclear test sites or tunnels other than Punggye Village. We did not cooperate with Iran or Syria in the process of nuclear development,” said Kang Kyung-ho, North Korea’s vice director of its Nuclear Weapons Institute, speaking to reporters from Russian state news agency RIA Novosti who were covering the shutdown ceremony. Kang’s claim represents an appeal to the international community to trust North Korea’s “sincerity.”

Before demolishing Tunnel 2 of the nuclear test ground at Punggye Village
Before demolishing Tunnel 2 of the nuclear test ground at Punggye Village

Eliminating North Korea’s “past nuclear program” to be ultimate goal

In regard to the technical aspect of nonproliferation, the shutdown of the nuclear test site is a key step toward eliminating North Korea’s “future nuclear program.” Regular nuclear tests are essential for maintaining and improving nuclear ability, and shutting down the nuclear test site eliminates the physical basis for additional nuclear tests. This is also the first step toward the “complete denuclearization” and “nuclear-free Korean Peninsula” that were mentioned in the Panmunjeom Declaration made by Moon and Kim.

The question of eliminating North Korea’s “past nuclear program” (that is, nuclear weapons currently in its arsenal), which can be described as the ultimate goal of and the key to complete denuclearization, was widely regarded by experts both at home and abroad as depending upon the “talks of the century” between Kim and Trump. From another perspective, this depends on whether North Korea could rejoin the international economic order through the resolution of the policy of hostility and security threat toward the North that Kim has long emphasized, or in other words through a guarantee of security for the Pyongyang regime.

But the opportunity for the “talks of the century” has been placed in jeopardy by the letter in which Trump said, “I feel it is inappropriate, at this time, to have this long-planned meeting.” Kim has made a series of bold strategic decisions this year, and the big question now is whether he seizes upon the caveat in Trump’s letter that says “If you change your mind having to do with this most important summit, please do not hesitate to call me or write” and blows on the dying embers of the summit.

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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