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Former Minister of Unification Lee Jong-seok gives a lecture titled “A Proposal for Success with the Trump Formula” during the Korea Future Forum” at The Plaza Hotel in Seoul on May 30

“Swapping North Korean denuclearization and the key elements of a security guarantee for the Pyongyang regime within six months is the only practical way to resolve the concerns and satisfy the expectations of both North Korea and the US,” said former Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok.

On May 30, Lee proposed a “six-month front-loaded approach” as a “third way” that would accommodate US President Donald Trump’s desire for a quick “all-in-one” approach and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s preference for “gradual and simultaneous measures.” Lee made his proposal while the two sides are in the middle of a fierce tug-of-war over a definite way to trade denuclearization for a security guarantee as momentum is building in three series of talks taking place in Panmunjeom, New York and Singapore ahead of the first North Korea-US summit in history.

Lee made his front-loaded proposal, which consists of two stages, during a lecture titled “A Proposal for Success with the Trump Formula” during the Korea Future Forum, which was held at the Plaza Hotel Seoul on May 30. According to this proposal, North Korea would first provide the US with a list of its nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and the locations where they are stored and would then destroy all of them, perhaps by shipping them overseas, during the six months between the North Korea-US summit and the end of the year.

Dealing with the heart of the North’s nuclear arsenal, which the Trump administration regards as a direct security threat, would definitely improve the prospects of CVID – that is, “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization.” During that period, the US would compensate the North with CVIG – or in other words, a “complete, verifiable and irreversible guarantee” of security for the regime.

More specifically, this would mean declaring the end of the Korean War and promising non-aggression, or if necessary signing a non-aggression pact, to provide military security; establishing diplomatic relations between North Korea and the US and removing the North from the list of state sponsors of terrorism to provide political security; and ending the UN and US’s economic sanctions against North Korea to provide economic security. Discussion about a peace treaty could also begin during this period.

During the second phase – lasting for two years, from 2019 to 2020 – the steps toward denuclearization would include verifying the list of nuclear weapons and ICBMs that have been destroyed; destroying and verifying nuclear materials; destroying and verifying processes and facilities related to nuclear materials; destroying and verifying ICBM production facilities, processes and storage facilities; transferring workers from nuclear weapons and ICBMS to other industries; and carrying out special inspections.

Meanwhile, steps toward a security guarantee would include providing the North with economic rewards, American companies moving into North Korea, North Korea, Japan establishing diplomatic relations with North Korea (recommended), and finalizing a peace treaty. “I think that would be enough to satisfy both North Korea and the US,” Lee said.

The crux of this proposal is for North Korea and the US to move quickly to satisfy each other’s key demands within the short period of six months. The two sides would have to move quickly, with North Korea carrying out denuclearization and the US skipping the establishment of a permanent mission and moving straight to normalizing diplomatic relations with the North by exchanging ambassadors.

Lee emphasized that Trump needs to exercise his political leadership to ease Kim’s fears: “According to US law, not only removing North Korea’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism but also establishing diplomatic relations with the North are matters that can be decided and implemented by the president” without congressional approval.

“In order for the negotiations to succeed, the most important thing is to have a deep understanding of Kim’s fear,” Lee went on to say. “Kim can’t help but be greatly afraid of abandoning nuclear weapons,” Lee said, because his resolution to denuclearize means abandoning the “militarism” that has been North Korea’s chief means of survival since its establishment in 1948. Another reason for Kim’s fear is that “This is a [paradoxical] situation in which Kim must give up his nuclear weapons in exchange for a security guarantee from the ‘hostile country’ [the US] that provided the justification for making those nuclear weapons.

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“I think that what is unclear to Kim Jong-un is not his commitment to denuclearization but rather his concern about whether he can definitely trust the US to end its hostile policy and guarantee regime security,” South Korean President Moon Jae-in said while announcing the results of his summit with Kim at Unification House on May 27.

During a hearing before the House of Representatives on May 24, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he and Kim had discussed a plan to provide North Korea with a complete, verifiable and irreversible security guarantee, and Pompeo’s comments can also be understood in this context.

“The ‘Trump formula’ is not set in stone, but will instead be created through the North Korea-US summit. The Trump formula is a work in progress,” Lee added.

“If Lee Jong-seok’s proposal were put into practice, it would not be a ‘bad deal’ for North Korea even if the US Congress changed course and ‘paused’ it in the middle,” said a diplomatic source who is familiar with recent actions and political developments in Seoul, Pyongyang and Washington.

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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