[News analysis] Absence of “CVID” in joint statement?

Posted on : 2018-06-14 16:42 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Reference to Kim’s “firm and unwavering” commitment to denuclearization may be substitute for “verifiable”
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (center) arrives at Osan Air Base of US Forces Korea (USFK)
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (center) arrives at Osan Air Base of US Forces Korea (USFK)

The absence of any reference to “complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement” (CVID) of North Korea’s nuclear program in the joint statement reached at US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s June 12 summit in Singapore is being seen by some as a “negotiation failure” on the US’s part. But an analysis of Trump’s subsequent remarks – and a reading between the lines of the Pyongyang’s official announcement – suggests the US achieved practical gains in terms of a commitment from the North in exchange for the face-saving measure of avoiding use of the “CVID” term due to possible North Korean objections to it.

To begin with, the Singapore joint statement’s language marks a step forward from the Panmunjeom Declaration of Apr. 27 in terms of the final goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. The latest statement refers to Kim having “reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” While the Panmunjeom Declaration referred to “realizing, through complete denuclearization, a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula,” the new statement includes the additional reference to a “firm and unwavering commitment.”

From the reference to Kim’s “firm and unwavering” commitment to denuclearization, some experts are suggesting North Korea may have agreed to verification in addition to denuclearization – in other words, that the language may be a substitute for the “verifiable” part of the CVID approach demanded by Washington.

“You could see them as having used the term out of awareness of North Korea’s discomfort with the word ‘verification,’” Handong Global University professor Kim Joon-hyung said after a Korea Press Foundation debate at Singapore’s Swissotel on June 13.

“It may be fair to say North Korea made a definite commitment on the implementation and verification issues,” Kim argued.

In the past, Pyongyang has objected to the term “CVID” – which first emerged during the George W. Bush presidency – as meaning an attempt to undermine its regime. Its continued opposition to use of the word “complete” up to the later stages of working-level negotiations suggests the inclusion of language about a “firm and unwavering commitment” may have been the result of Trump and Kim’s negotiations.

Indeed, Trump hinted at a post-summit press conference that some discussions took place on the verification issue.

“[Complete denuclearization] will be verified,” he said, adding that it would “be achieved by having a lot of people there.” Trump went on to say verification would involve “combinations of both” Americans and the international community.

The reference to “having a lot of people” present for verification could be seen as meaning a tacit agreement on swift denuclearization, while the reference to verification by Americans may be seen as alluding to nuclear warheads and ICBMs in addition to the nuclear facilities that have been made public.

While the term “irreversible” was not used in the joint statement, discussions on irreversible measures do appear to have taken place between the two leaders.

Could be “a lot more content behind the scenes”

On his way back to the US after the summit, Trump tweeted from his presidential aircraft on June 12 that the outcome included “no missiles shot, no [nuclear/missile] research happening, [test] sites closing.” The relocation of research staff and destruction of related date are seen as key elements of irreversible denuclearization measures.

“In terms of CVID and regime guarantees, there may be a lot more content behind the scenes than what was revealed in the joint statement,” Kim Joon-hyung said.

Initial denuclearization steps from North Korea were not mentioned in the joint statement, which discussed only general principles and directions. But both North Korea and the US hinted that measures of some kind could emerge going ahead. In an interview with the ABC network after the summit, Trump said North Korea was “going to get rid of certain ballistic missile sites and various other things.”

“We’re gonna put that out later,” he added.

NK indicates additional goodwill measures of next stage”

According to a Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) report on June 13, Kim said at the summit that if the US “takes genuine measures for building trust in order to improve the DPRK-U.S. relationship,” North Korea could “continue to take additional good-will measures of next stage [sic] commensurate with them.”

The two sides also reported reached an agreement on ICBM abandonment at working-level talks just before the summit. This suggests both may present unexpected measures once a certain amount of trust-testing time has passed.

By Yi Yong-in, reporting from Singapore, and Hwang Joon-bum, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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