hankyoreh

North Korean leader shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on June 19.

The Singapore-based newspaper Straits Times is reporting that Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to attend North Korea’s foundation day celebrations next month. However, at this point, it is necessary to look more closely at whether the plan will come to fruition as Xi’s planned visit to North Korea would cause no small number of political obstacles that need to be managed.

The Straits Times reported on Aug. 18 that President Xi will attend the 70th anniversary of North Korea’s founding on Sept. 9. While Xi is predicted to undertake a three-day visit to North Korea from Sept. 8 – 10, both North Korean and Chinese goverments have remained silent on the matter.

If Xi goes ahead with the visit, it will be the first time since President Hu Jintao in Oct. 2005 that a Chinese president has travelled to North Korea. After becoming Vice President, Xi made a personal visit to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in 2008. The last time that a high-ranking Chinese official visited North Korea was when Politburo Standing Committee member Liu Yunhsan (then the 5th highest ranked official in China) attended events commemorating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean Workers’ Party in Oct. 2015.

Ups and downs in North Korea-China relations during Xi’s term.

If Xi’s visit to North Korea becomes a reality, the likelihood is that this will become a symbolic incident that will fundamentally influence North Korea-China relations. During Xi’s first term in office (2012-2017), the relationship between the two sides became strained due to North Korea’s nuclear development and the execution of Jang Song-taek. In July 2014, Xi became the first Chinese leader to travel to South Korea prior to visiting the North, and in the following years, North Korea-China relations worsened due to North Korea’s nuclear tests and China’s support for sanctions at the UN Security Council.

This year, however, the relationship has improved after North Korea declared the ‘completion of its state nuclear force,’ and became actively involved in discussions regarding denuclearization. Since the end of March, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has traveled to China three times to hold summits with President Xi. In this context, Xi has referred to the “lips-and-teeth relationship” between China and North Korea, while Kim responded to this by saying the two sides share, “a special relationship without precedent in the East or West.”

If Xi responds to Kim’s prior visits to China with a corresponding visit to North Korea, the relations between the two sides, including economic cooperation that has been obstructed by sanctions, look likely to enter a new phase. However, others are cautioning that it is too soon to assume that the visit will actually occur. With the US and China squaring off in a trade war, if China overreaches in its approach toward North Korea, it could find itself held responsible for the slowdown in the denuclearization talks.

In actuality, when negotiations with North Korea were not progressing as he had hoped earlier this year, US President Donald Trump referred to Xi as a “world class poker player” who may have been playing the two sides off each other. In a White House Cabinet meeting on Aug. 16, Trump said, “The [US-North Korea] relationship seems very good. [But] I think it’s probably hurt a little bit by China because China isn’t really happy with what I’m doing on trade.” There is a perception that China is leveraging its relationship with North Korea to gain an advantageous position in its economic battle with the United States.

Behind-the-scenes Chinese influence was also one reason that was cited in Trump’s shock decision on May 24 to cancel the planned summit with Kim in Singapore.

“Looking at it rationally, since Kim Jong-un visited China three times, there are many reasons for Xi to visit North Korea,” said Lee Hee-ok, the Director of the Sungkyun Institute of China Studies at Sungkyunkwan University. “Right now, China has nothing to offer North Korea because of the sanctions against the North Korean economy, and so we need to see if the visit is actually going to take place.”

Ultimately, the prospects for Xi’s visit will become more concretely apparent following the fourth visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to North Korea later this month, of which positive signals are currently emanating. In the event that Pompeo’s end of August visit results in the “Big Deal” of an exchange of a declaration ending the Korean War in return for the North’s disclosure of its nuclear facilities, the political obstacles for Xi’s visit to Pyongyang will have disappeared. However, if the pending US-North Korea talks simply confirm the disagreements between the two sides that surfaced during Pompeo’s previous visit to Pyongyang, Xi’s room to maneuver will be greatly reduced.

In response to a question from The Hankyoreh on Aug. 19 regarding Xi’s visit to North Korea, a US State Department spokesperson said, “We expect China to use its distinct leverage to earnestly engage in credible negotiations leading to the goal of full, final verified denuclearization (FFVD) of North Korea, as agreed to by Chairman Kim.” This can be interpreted to mean that the US government would prefer President Xi to help with the denuclearization issue rather than hastily paying a visit to North Korea.

A spokesperson for the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated simply that the government was “paying attention to” the possibility of Xi’s visit.

By Kim Oi-hyun, Beijing Correspondent, Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent, and Noh Ji-won, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]