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The North Korean cargo plane P-914 (Ilyushin 76MD)

North Korea, China, and Russia are showing increased unity following Pyongyang and Washington’s agreement to hold a second summit in the near future. In remarks on Oct. 8, South Korean President Moon Jae-in predicted the three sides would be united in a new “order” surrounding the Korean Peninsula.

“A Russia visit by North Korean National Defence Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un and a North Korea visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to take place in the near future,” Moon said. His remarks were read as signaling his hopes that the strategic actions by Pyongyang, Beijing, and Moscow will ultimately lead to an end to the Cold War regime in Northeast Asia.

North Korea, China, and Russia recently developed a “trilateral discussion” framework with visits to China and Russia by North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui. The three sides’ establishment of a new form of unity with trilateral discussions beyond their bilateral ties is seen as quite unusual in the history of Korean Peninsula diplomacy.

The move suggests strategic coordination among the three in the process of establishing a new order for the peninsula will take place at the institutional level. The US, which views China as a global competitor, may be wary of this unity potentially functioning to increase Beijing’s involvement in Korean Peninsula issues.

Xi’s North Korea visit is expected to lead to further strengthening of ties between Pyongyang and Beijing. While some had speculated he might travel to Pyongyang for the Sept. 9 anniversary of its administration’s establishment, the visit failed to happen amid the escalating trade war with the US. Some analysts suggested Beijing was taking time to gather itself from what it expects to be a long battle with Washington.

Kim’s visit to Russia is seen as likely to take place around Oct. 12, when North Korea and Russia mark the 70th anniversary of their diplomatic relationship. The prediction is further bolstered by confirmation that the North Korean cargo plane that transported Kim’s private vehicle for the North Korea-US summit in Singapore on June 12 paid a visit to Vladivostok on Oct. 7. According to the aircraft flight information website Flightradar24, North Korean P-914 cargo aircraft (Ilyushin 76MD) stopped in Vladivostok that day before returning home.

The increased unity by North Korea, China, and Russia could stir up conflict with the US, which aims to keep sanctions in place until North Korea’s “final and fully verifiable” denuclearization. US President Donald Trump canceled a previously planned visit by Pompeo to North Korea in August, claiming that China was creating cracks in the North Korea sanctions. A North Korea visit by Xi could revive US apprehensions with the reception by Pyongyang.

Russia has also adopted a different stance from the US on the sanctions issue, arguing the need for an end-of-war declaration, the easing of sanctions, and other corresponding measures from the US and the rest of the international community to achieve North Korean denuclearization. China and Russia openly demanded the easing of North Korea sanctions at a UN General Assembly session last month. The unity among North Korea, China, and Russia suggests they may be poised to send a united message to the US calling for the lifting of sanctions.

The unity does not appear likely to develop into a “Cold War-style” framework in opposition to the South Korea-US-Japan alliance. Both Beijing and Moscow support denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and establishment of a peace regime. They also share interests in generating economic opportunities through North Korean openness and the linking of South and North Korean railways. Most crucially, North Korea is seeking ways to end its longstanding hostile relationship with the US.

“The situation is one where China and Russia have no option but to be part of the larger current of dismantling the Cold War regime on the Korean Peninsula,” a former diplomat said.

“What we need are diplomatic efforts to integrate the interests of the countries surrounding the Korean Peninsula.”

By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer, and Kim Oi-hyun, Beijing correspondent

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]