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US President Donald Trump responds to reporters’ questions after a Republican rally in Elko

September 24: “The date and time will be announced shortly.”

October 7: “The summit will be held as quickly as possible.”

October 9: “It will be held after the midterm elections.”

October 12: “It will be held sometime in the next two to three months.”

October 19: “It looks like it will be happening after Jan. 1.”

The US timeline for holding a second summit with North Korea keeps getting pushed back. After it initially seemed that the summit would happen soon after an inter-Korean summit on Sept. 19, over a month has passed without any decision on the date or venue. Now high-level US authorities are even talking about it taking place past Jan. 1.

After previously indicating the summit date would come “after the midterms,” US President Donald Trump, is now openly calling not to “rush” things. His remarks appear to support White House National Security Advisor John Bolton and others who are setting a later date for the meeting.

“What this shows is that the North Korea-US summit schedule is essentially predicated on progress with denuclearization,” said a former diplomat familiar with North Korea-US relations.

In practical terms of the time needed to coordinate a summit agenda and make protocol and security preparations, a date within the year would be cutting things quite close. Coordinating the November and December schedules of Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would be no easy matter either. Trump is reportedly scheduled to visit France on Nov. 11 for an event marking the centennial of the First World War’s end and to attend the G20 summit in Argentina on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1. Kim is preparing a big schedule of his own, including his visit to Russia and a North Korea visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Some analysts have suggested Washington is using the timeline as leverage to pressure Pyongyang into additional denuclearization steps – suggesting that North Korea could help hasten things by making progress with denuclearization.

“With the midterm elections coming up, the Trump administration seems to want to send the message back home that it is not going to beg North Korea for dialogue, while sending Pyongyang the signal that it is pressing for more advanced denuclearization measures,” said University of North Korean Studies professor Yang Moo-jin.

“With this battle of wits still going between North Korea and the US, it’s tough to conclude yet whether the summit will be put off until next year,” Yang said.

At the same time, Washington has also been sending signals that it wants to sustain the current dialogue climate, including its proposal to hold high-level talks and its decision to suspend the Vigilant Ace joint Air Force exercise with South Korea.

“The messages the US has been sending North Korea are mixed,” said Institute for National Security Strategy senior researcher Lee Soo-hyoung.

“In addition to the dialogue signals, there has also been an emphasis on keeping sanctions in place and moves by hardliners to increase pressure on North Korea by dragging things out,” Lee said.

The mixed signals from Washington show how complex the battle of wits with Pyongyang has become. At the Sept. 19 inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang, North Korea pledged to dismantle its nuclear facilities at Yongbyon, contingent on corresponding measures from the US. It then joined China and Russia in demanding a gradual loosening of sanctions.

In other words, North Korea’s target has shifted from a declaration ending the Korean War to the lifting of the sanctions against it. During his European tour, South Korean President Moon Jae-in raised the need to consider loosening sanctions at a stage of “irreversible” denuclearization by North Korea. The US, for its part, has been forced to weigh the importance of corresponding measures.

The general outline of the second North Korea-US summit schedule appears likely to be drawn at the high-level talks, which are predicted to happen as early as next week. If the North Korea-US summit date does move into next year, it could affect Kim’s plans to visit South Korea as indicated in the Sept. 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration. Diplomatic sources predicted that the difficulties in coordinating North Korea’s denuclearization with corresponding US measures would continue, but said negotiations could gain renewed momentum once the high-level talks take place.

“At the moment, we are hoping the second North Korea-US summit proceeds smoothly, and we look forward to Chairman Kim paying a reciprocal visit to Seoul as scheduled,” said Blue House spokesperson Kim Eui-kyum in an Oct. 22 briefing.

By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent, and Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer, and Park Min-hee, staff reporter

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