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Chinese tourists pose for photographs in front of the remains of a bridge that once connected the Chinese city of Dandong with the North Korean city of Sinuiju on Nov. 8. (Kim Bong-gyu

After the leaders of the US and China promised to work together “100 percent” on the issue of North Korea, the next question is how China will handle with its relations with North Korea and with the sanctions on the North.

During the first half of the year, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had flaunted the radical improvement of the North’s ties to China by holding three summits with Chinese President Xi Jinping and flying to Singapore for his summit with US President Donald Trump in June on a Chinese jet. More recently, however, this has been eclipsed by conflict between the US and China.

Trump’s tactic for containing China had involved him accusing it of obstruction. But since Trump’s summit with Xi on Dec. 1, he has been apparently trying to get North Korea’s attention by advertising the fact that he convinced China to agree to cooperate on denuclearization and sanctions on the North. “[Xi] is agreeing to work with me 100 percent on North Korea,” Trump said. “A solution for North Korea is a great thing for China and all.”

But Xi has not made any remarks on this topic, which raises questions about China’s calculations.

staff photographer)

China had distanced itself from the US position that North Korea must denuclearize before sanctions can be lifted and had held that sanctions should be eased in sync with denuclearization. China’s new shift in positions appears to be a tactical move aimed at preventing further escalation in its conflict with the US.

“China is playing along with UN sanctions on North Korea as a way to show that it’s cooperating with the US and to keep its relations from the US from deteriorating over the North Korean nuclear issue,” said Kim Heung-kyu, director of the China Policy Institute at Ajou University.

Kim Heung-kyu believes that China probably considered the possibility that violating the framework of UN sanctions could make it the target of White House strategists who would blame it for the lack of progress on denuclearization, as well as the possibility that the US could pressure it using the Taiwan issue.

“China-North Korea relations won’t improve faster than North Korea-US relations,” said Lee Nam-ju, a professor at Sungkonghoe University. Along the same lines, Lee pointed out that North Korea had asked Xi to visit North Korea in October for the anniversary of the establishment of the Workers’ Party of Korea but that China had declined the invitation out of concern for its relations with the US.

Another viewpoint is that China is attempting to use its compliance with UN sanctions as a way to force North Korea to speed up denuclearization and to prevent it from escaping from China’s sphere of influence.

“There’s a sense in which China is using the strength of sanctions to manage North Korea and advance its denuclearization, which is strategically important to China,” Kim said. While China has voiced its support for the principle that North Korea should be given something in return for movement toward denuclearization, it has not actually taken any action to ease UN sanctions, Kim pointed out.

That said, China doesn’t seem likely to move “100 percent” toward maintaining and strengthening sanctions as the US wishes. There are domestic political considerations at work here, too, since Xi must avoid appearing as if he’s giving too much ground to the US.

“Xi has emphasized that he’ll never give in to the US when it comes to matters of security and the national interest. Since China has recently lost ground in its strategic rivalry with the US, Xi is worried that he may face blowback in domestic politics. That means he needs a rationale that will be domestically persuasive on the North Korean issue as well. Xi probably made clear to the US that he wants to know when and under what conditions North Korean sanctions can be relaxed, while also promising to maintain those sanctions for the time being,” said Kim Han-kwon, a professor at the Korean National Diplomatic Academy.

China is a country that’s capable of tweaking the intensity of sanctions across a range of channels, including not only the sanctions imposed by UN Security Council resolutions but also the independent sanctions requested by the US and exchange with North Korea conducted by local governments and private-sector companies within China.

“Since China can’t ignore its relations with North Korea, it will exercise flexibility in its independent and local government sanctions while maintaining UN sanctions. It will seek to use this flexibility, such as easing restrictions on Chinese tourists visiting the North, to stabilize its relations with the North,” Lee Nam-ju said.

Preparations are ongoing for what will happen after sanctions are lifted. “China continues to prepare potential projects with North Korea during the phase of sanctions,” said Lee Hui-ok, director of the Sungkyun Institute of China Studies. Lee said these preparations include training North Korean workers; passing along China’s experience with reform and opening; introducing new industrial trends; giving advice about development models, institutions and infrastructure; and sharing China’s experience with joining the International Monetary Fund in Apr. 1980.

By Park Min-hee, staff reporter

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