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Former Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok gives a keynote address at a conference of the Korean Association of North Korean Studies at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul on Dec. 14.

Former South Korean Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok remarked on Dec. 14 that “North Korea is presumably still working on a ‘plan B’ in case its negotiations [with the US] break down.”

“If the US unilaterally demands that North Korea denuclearize without taking any corresponding measures, such as easing sanctions, North Korea won’t give up its nuclear weapons in order to gain relief from economic sanctions,” Lee said.

Lee made the remarks during a keynote address at a conference of the Korean Association of North Korean Studies, which was held at the University of North Korean Studies, in Seoul’s Samcheong neighborhood, on Friday.

“Since taking power in North Korea, Kim Jong-un appears to have shifted the North’s strategic line from a military focus (nuclear weapons) to an economic focus (the pursuit of peace),” Lee said.

“What Kim Jong-un and North Korea want is to go down the path of high-level economic growth and prosperity by trading denuclearization for lifting economic sanctions. But if North Korea concludes that American unilateralism prevents it from going down the path of prosperity, it could shift to a basic survival strategy of just keeping food on the table,” Lee said.

As evidence showing that North Korea is preparing a plan B, Lee pointed to the North’s inordinate focus on nationalizing sectors affected by sanctions to an extent that surpasses import substitution and the Rodong Sinmun’s recent emphasis on self-sufficiency.

“Since imports of crude oil and coke (fuel made by heating coal in the absence of air) were banned by the sanctions, the North Koreans have invested enormous resources in a program to convert petrochemicals to coal chemicals and to replace coke with anthracite and lignite in its steel refineries. The high cost of these efforts has reduced economic efficiency and poses an obstacle to the standardization needed for an inter-Korean economic community,” Lee said.

“In light of the overall situation, it’s very unlikely that North Korea will move away from denuclearization and negotiations. But if the current unilateralism continues, the denuclearization talks could conceivably run into a prolonged impasse,” Lee said.

Therefore, Lee suggested, “if Kim shows his flexibility on denuclearization by making concessions, eve minor ones, the US should follow suit by offering corresponding measures, such as relaxing sanctions.”

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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