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Upon arriving in Beijing

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s fourth visit to China took place in Beijing on Jan. 7–8 amid trade talks by the US and China. What was Chinese President Xi Jinping’s strategy in “inviting” Kim for a bilateral summit ahead of a second North Korea-US summit while a trade war is raging with the US?

To begin with, his aim may have been to confirm Beijing’s influence on the Korean Peninsula ahead of the North Korea-US summit. China has worked to consolidate its influence by creating a “rule” whereby North Korea only proceeds with major decisions – including those concerning summits with the US – after first receiving Beijing’s confirmation.

“China has been reaffirming its influence on the Korean Peninsula while dismissing the possibility of China being ‘bypassed,’ as they’re concerned that the US might bring North Korea on board while curbing China at the North Korea-US summit,” said Kim Heung-kyu, director of the Ajou University China Policy Institute. Kim predicted China would grant guarantees of economic support – and, if necessary, military support – to allow North Korea to take bold steps toward denuclearization.

But while Pyongyang’s main objective at the moment is to have UN sanctions lifted, experts say the possibility of China getting proactively involved remains low for now.

“With the trade talks with the US having just gotten started again, China is not likely to actively pursue the loosening or lifting of sanctions against North Korea, which could potentially reignite the US-China conflict,” said Kim Han-kwon, professor at Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

“In terms of economic support to North Korea, that will likely be restricted to humanitarian areas that present little risk of violating sanctions,” Kim suggested.

Another clearly developing trend as the trade war continues is China’s effort to turn cooperation on North Korean denuclearization into a space for working together with the US.

“The US has been grumbling that North Korea could become less proactive about denuclearization if the intensity of pressure is weakened by closeness between North Korea and

China, but China has been winning it over with the argument that it would not benefit the US either for the North to abandon denuclearization because of the exclusive focus on ratcheting up pressure,” explained Lee Nam-ju, professor at Sungkonghoe University.

The shift has been illustrated by the positive signals the US has recently shown regarding China’s role. In a Jan. 7 interview with CNBC, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said China “has actually been a good partner in our efforts to reduce the risk to the world from North Korea's nuclear capability.”

Another apparent aim from China appears to be actively managing its relations with North Korea, which mark their 70th anniversary this year. Kim Jong-un’s proposal for multilateral talks toward a peace regime in his New Year’s address – effectively making China’s participation official – has created greater room for coordination between the two sides. The irregularity of the current situation, where Kim has visited China four times without any reciprocal visits from Xi, has some observers speculating that a visit by Xi could be moved up to the first half of the year from its predicted date around the 70th anniversary of North Korea-China relations on Oct. 6. But China also appears likely to factor in conditions regarding its respective relations with the US and North Korea and the situation with North Korea’s denuclearization as it chooses the date for Xi’s visit.

By Park Min-hee, staff reporter

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