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South Korean President Moon Jae-in responds to reporters’ questions during his New Year’s press conference at the Blue House on Jan. 10. (Blue House photo pool)

South Korean President Moon Jae-in predicted a reciprocal visit to Seoul by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that failed to happen before the end of 2018 would come once a second North Korea-US summit has been held.

With Kim inviting Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit Pyongyang during their recent fourth bilateral summit and Xi announcing specific plans, observers are predicting a series of summits involving South and North Korea, the US, and China could take place through the end of 2019 once the second North Korea-US summit takes place.

“That matter [of Kim’s reciprocal visit] is tied to the second North-US summit,” Moon said in a New Year’s press conference on Jan. 10.

“Once a North Korea-US summit has taken place first, I suspect [Kim’s] visit will be able to be proceed a bit more smoothly,” he predicted, suggesting the outcome of the North Korea-US summit is being viewed as tied to Kim’s eventual visit to Seoul.

The Blue House previously explained that in a letter sent to Moon on Dec. 30 of last year, Kim Jong-un “showed his strong commitment to visiting Seoul as he observes the situation going ahead.” In the Jan. 10 press conference, Moon called the document a “very sincere letter,” adding, “I sent a letter of my own with the utmost sincerity.”

It remains unclear for now whether Xi’s visit to Pyongyang will come before or after the fourth inter-Korean summit. But with Oct. 6 of this year marking the 70th anniversary of North Korea-China relations, observers are speculating Xi may regard it as a suitable time to visit Pyongyang. If this happens, the resulting timetable would have the recent fourth North Korea-China summit followed in turn by a second North Korea-US summit, a fourth inter-Korean summit, and a fifth North Korea-China summit.

Summits between South Korea and the US, South Korea and China, and North Korea and Russia are expected to serve as intermediate links in the summit diplomacy process. Moon extended a formal invitation to Xi during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit last November. Kim also received an invitation from Russian President Vladimir Putin during the 70th anniversary of North Korea-Russia relations last year. These developments suggest that the “multi-party negotiations for replacing the current ceasefire on the Korean peninsula with a peace mechanism” mentioned by Kim in his New Year’s address are now taking place at the head of state level.

By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer

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