[News analysis] A comparison of the 1st and 2nd N. Korea-US Summits

Posted on : 2019-02-12 17:21 KST Modified on : 2019-02-12 17:21 KST
Higher level of officials in negotiations reveals increased importance on both sides
The Vietnam National Convention Center
The Vietnam National Convention Center

The schedule and location of the second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which is coming up in two weeks, were settled before the negotiators tackled the agenda. This approach is similar to that taken for the first summit, which was held in Singapore on June 12, 2018. One of the main points to watch this time around is what differences will result from the fact that both North Korea and the US have appointed new chief working-level negotiators who are engaged in detailed discussions.

The date of this summit was settled before anything else during the visit to Washington, DC, in January by Kim Yong-chol, vice chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK). The fact that the negotiations about the agenda of the summit began during a subsequent visit to Pyongyang by US State Department Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Biegun is reminiscent of the preparations for the Singapore summit. Last year, the working-level talks in Panmunjom began after Trump announced the date and location of the first summit on Twitter on the morning of May 10, 33 days before the summit was scheduled.

Similar sequence of preparation, but with considerable differences

Despite the superficial similarities of the sequence – deciding the time and location before discussing the agenda – a comparison of the preparations for the first and second summit also reveals some considerable differences. The figures who are participating in the working-level negotiations have a higher rank this time. Biegun, who was given full authority for negotiations with North Korea at the end of Aug. 2018, carries more weight than US Ambassador to the Philippines Song Kim, who temporarily doubled as head of the working-level negotiations prior to the first summit. Biegun has been getting attention not only because he can give Trump personal briefings but also because of his cautious yet flexible approach to North Korea, which was on display in a recent lecture at Stanford University.

North Korea’s State Affairs Commission Special Representative for US Affairs Kim Hyok-chol, who has emerged as Biegun’s new counterpart, is not as well-known as Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, who led the working-level negotiations during the first summit. Even so, Kim is believed to have more authority, considering that the new position of “special representative for US Affairs” was created under the State Affairs Commission, which is under the direct control of Kim Jong-un. Diplomatic experts believe that Kim Hyok-chol will be able to report directly to Kim Jong-un.

Final decision once again falls into the hands of summit’s two leaders

That said, it’s uncertain whether Biegun and Kim Hyok-chol will be able to finish coordinating the agenda during the working-level negotiations. The working-level negotiations that began in Panmunjom prior to the first summit last year continued in Singapore until shortly before the actual summit, but the negotiators reportedly were never able to reach a compromise.

Because of the unique nature of North Korea-US negotiations, it remains possible that the final decision will once again fall into the lap of the two leaders.

“This time, it’s likely that the negotiations will be wrapped up on the working level before [the leaders] meet. But there’s still a possibility that areas of continuing disagreement will be handed over to the leaders to hash out,” said Cho Sung-ryul, a senior research fellow for the Institute for National Security Strategy. In that case, the agreement about the agenda could mirror the “top-down” approach of the first summit, in which the final decision was made by Kim Jong-un and Trump.

More time opens possibility for social events

One of the most distinctive aspects of the second summit is that it will last for two days, whereas the first summit was wrapped up in a single day. Considering that the leaders have ample time, experts predict that the summit itinerary will feature not only negotiations but also social events akin to the “footbridge chat” between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in in an attempt to build and emphasize trust.

“There could be a formal dinner, and the leaders will meet at least twice,” said Kim Joon-hyung, a professor at Handong Global University.

The chief North Korea representative in the working-level deliberations for protocol and security is likely to be Kim Chang-son, Kim Jong-un’s de facto chief of staff, just as during the first summit. During the Singapore summit, Kim Chang-son’s counterpart in the deliberations was Joe Hagin, then deputy chief of staff at the White House. Since Hagin later resigned, however, Kim’s new counterpart is expected to be Daniel Walsh, who replaced Hagin as deputy chief of staff.

By Kim Ji-eun and Noh Ji-won, staff reporters

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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