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Robert Carlin

Robert Carlin, a visiting professor at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), said it would be a “great achievement” if the second North Korea-US summit on Feb. 27–28 results in North Korea abandoning its nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.

A former CIA intelligence analyst and co-author of the revised edition of “The Two Koreas,” Carlin offered his assessment when asked to predict what kind of agreement would be reached at the summit during an interview with Radio Free Asia published on Feb. 11. Carlin also met and shared opinions with US State Department Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun at Stanford on Jan. 31, supervising the Q&A session for Biegun’s talk on North Korea policy.

“Skeptics may argue that Yongbyon is not enough, but all of North Korea’s plutonium production takes place at Yongbyon, and dismantling the thousands of centrifuges there would be a huge measure,” Carlin said.

At an inter-Korean summit in September of last year, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stated his willingness to dismantle the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon – known as the nerve center for North Korea’s production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium as fuel for nuclear weapons – in response to corresponding measures from the US.

“They could discuss corresponding measures from the US such as an end-of-war declaration and the dismantling of the Punggye Village nuclear test site and intercontinental ballistic missiles [ICBMs],” Carlin predicted.

Carlin also commented on Kim’s visit to the Ministry of People’s Armed Forces for Military Foundation Day on Feb. 8, where he encouraged the People’s Army to participate in and contribute to building the national economy.

“We need to pay attention what the internal message is,” he stressed.

“This summit may produce a major decision that the military might not welcome, and he’s saying that the military will need to follow along with the party’s decision,” he said.

Carlin went on to note the significance of North Korea emphasizing the role of State Affairs Commission Special Representative for US Affairs Kim Hyok-chol as Biegun’s counterpart, describing Workers’ Party of Korea Vice Chairman Kim Yong-chol as “a tough negotiator who is not going to give a ‘yes’ answer readily.”

“Kim Hyok-chol is a skilled negotiator, and I think he shows Kim Jong-un’s desire for a different approach to negotiation now,” he said.

By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

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