hankyoreh

Moon Chung-in

Moon Chung-in, special advisor to the South Korean President for unification, foreign affairs and national security, said that the second North Korea-US summit needs to produce a roadmap and timetable. Moon’s suggestion is for North Korea and the US to set up a working-group to hash out the details of the three general agreements that the two sides made during their summit in Singapore on June 12.

Moon offered this suggestion during a seminar about prospects for Korean Peninsula affairs in 2019 that was held at the National Assembly Hall on the afternoon of Feb. 15. During the seminar on Friday, Moon emphasized the need for US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to reach an agreement on a roadmap for denuclearization and corresponding measures during their second summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Feb. 27-28, which is now barely 10 days away.

“I would like the US to make a roadmap and a timetable and to specifically express what [steps North Korea should take toward denuclearization] by the end of this year and by the end of next year. There are the questions of when the North’s nuclear facilities, materials and warheads will be eliminated and when its missiles will be dismantled, and they’ll need to make a list of its short-range missiles, medium-range missiles and ICBMs. For those reasons, a roadmap and a timetable are quite important,” Moon said.

“Unless the two leaders agree to a roadmap and timetable,” Moon explained, “the two sides are more likely to break their promise. Drawing up a roadmap and timetable and releasing them to the international community will enable both sides to keep their word.”

Three of the agreements that North Korea and the US announced in their joint statement in Singapore on June 12, 2018, were to reset their bilateral relations, to build a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and to achieve the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. During the subsequent inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang that September, North Korea mentioned some concrete steps toward denuclearization, including the permanent closure of its engine test site in Tongchang Village as well as its Yongbyon nuclear facilities, pending corresponding measures by the US. The way to ensure that the two sides follow through on the commitments made in Singapore and in Pyongyang, Moon emphasized, is for the two leaders to create a concrete implementation plan that brings together North Korea’s denuclearization steps and the US’ corresponding measures and to release that plan to domestic and international audiences.

Moon summarized what North Korea hopes to gain through its dialogue with the US as follows: “The first thing North Korea wants is a political guarantee, including the recognition of its regime. The second thing is a liaison office and the establishment of diplomatic relations. The third thing is a military guarantee, such as the cessation of South Korea-US joint military exercises or a ban on the forward deployment of strategic weapons on the Korean Peninsula.”

“As a reward for giving up its nuclear weapons, North Korea might want to receive partial or complete relief from economic sanctions and not to be prevented from joining the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund or the Asian Development Bank. Furthermore, it might want the doors to be opened for international investment, permission to use nuclear power peacefully in its agriculture and medical sectors and for the generation of electricity, and the ability to launch satellites.”

“What the US basically wants is the inspection and complete dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear facilities, materials and weapons, as well as the ballistic missiles that can deliver them. Since North Korea and the US know what each other want, a matrix can form. I figure that this sort of thing is what they’ll be negotiating in the Hanoi summit.”

But Moon expressed reservations about whether the roadmap that he emphasized can be drafted during the summit in Hanoi, which is scheduled to last for two days. “The roadmap isn’t something that can be created during two days of meetings by the two leaders,” Moon said, emphasizing the need for the creation of a working group based on the three agreements reached at Singapore (resetting relations, a peace regime and denuclearization).

“This would be an agreement by the two leaders for the working group to create a roadmap to denuclearization. Since the Singapore declaration was full of generalities, the Hanoi agreement needs to get into the specifics. They’ll have to agree to set up a working group that can implement those specifics in order to say they’ve had tangible results,” Moon said.

Moon feels fairly optimistic about this idea, which he said “shouldn’t be difficult.” As grounds for that position, Moon note that US State Department Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have recognized that North Korea’s denuclearization shouldn’t be rushed and isn’t capable of an immediate solution.

“Even a general agreement would be meaningful, but it has to say what North Korea will do in the next couple of years. If North Korea submits a list of the enrichment facilities that it’s presumed to have in addition to shutting down the Yongbyon nuclear facility and makes it possible to verify that list, no one is likely to regard [the summit] as a failure,” Moon added.

In connection with this, Moon predicted that the question of what approach should be taken for the disclosure and inspection of North Korea’s nuclear facilities, materials and weapons would be a thorny issue on the agenda of the summit in Hanoi. “It’s going to be the Yongbyon nuclear facilities along with a bonus measure, and the US might say that that bonus needs to be inspections of the uranium enrichment facilities that North Korea is hiding. Depending on how the North responds, the US might offer a reward,” he said.

When asked whether the summit agreement might only include dismantling the ICBMs that pose a direct threat to the US, Moon said, “President Trump wouldn’t accept that. During development, ICBMs require between 15 and 16 test launches to demonstrate stability and accuracy before they can be deployed. But North Korea has only test fired its Hwasong-15 missile one time. It’s doubtful that the US would be satisfied with the North only giving that up.”

By Noh Ji-won, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]