hankyoreh

Pictured from the left are Frank Aum

US experts on Korean Peninsula issues said that the US needs to ease sanctions on inter-Korean economic cooperation during its second summit with North Korea. When the Hankyoreh asked six experts about their opinions and predictions for the summit on Feb. 16, the experts said partial relief from sanctions was needed to resume operations at the Kaesong Industrial Complex and tourism to Mt. Kumgang. As for North Korea, the experts said it needs to take measures such as implementing a nuclear and missile freeze in addition to the verifiable shutdown of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities that it has already promised. When asked what tangible results the summit might have, many of the experts predicted an agreement about formally declaring the end of the Korean War.

As North Korea and the US continue to squabble over the steps toward denuclearization and corresponding measures since their first summit in June of last year, many experts think the US needs to exercise more flexibility in regard to its sanctions on North Korea that affect inter-Korean relations.

“The US needs to show that it’s strongly committed to building new relations with North Korea and to lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula as agreed to in the Singapore joint statement,” said Frank Aum, a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace, who proposed the establishment of liaison offices in Washington and Pyongyang, a formal declaration ending the Korean War, and the establishment of parallel negotiations for denuclearization and peace. Another thing that the US should do, in Aum’s opinion, is relax sanctions related to the Kaesong Industrial Complex, tourism to Mt. Kumgang and inter-Korean railroad cooperation.

“The US could relax some of its sanctions related to inter-Korean relations. That would be a nod to North Korea’s request for sanctions relief, earn South Korea’s approval and advance the goal of peace,” said Andrew Yeo, a professor at the Catholic University of America.

Harry Kazianis, a defense analyst for the Center for the National Interest, explicitly predicted that sanctions on North Korea would be relaxed during the summit. “President Trump will provide partial relief from sanctions on North Korea while finding a way to categorize it as something else. The American administration will give its blessing to inter-Korean economic development projects, which it will describe as economic aid to North Korea,” Kazianis said.

The experts also had considerable expectations for North Korea. “North Korea needs to open up more of its nuclear program than the aging Yongbyon nuclear reactor,” said John Merrill, former chief of the Northeast Asia Division of the US State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.

“I think that the US is willing to offer more if North Korea offers more. North Korea needs to put much more on the table at the summit than the inspections of the Yongbyon, Tongchang Village and Punggye Village facilities that it has already promised. It should also be preparing the handover of long-range missiles, disclosing additional nuclear materials and technology and freezing its production of nuclear weapons and missiles,” Aum said.

Several of the experts also said that an agreement needs to be reached on a roadmap detailing when and how denuclearization and peace will be achieved.

“Another important thing is a roadmap for how the negotiations will move forward following the summit. The two leaders need to authorize their negotiators to not only accept concessions but also to make them,” said Mark Tokola, vice president of the Korean Economic Institute of America. Tokola urged the two sides to avoid repeating the breakdown in the working-level negotiations that followed the two sides’ first summit last year.

Experts said that the Trump administration’s recent adoption of the principle of “step-by-step and simultaneous action” represented “considerable conciliation” (Merrill) and “a realistic approach” (Yeo). This is leading experts to predict that the second summit will produce results that are more concrete than the first, though few of them expect them to be groundbreaking.

“The results of the summit will be measured and cautious. The US will promise an end-of-war declaration and a partial relaxation of sanctions, while North Korea will promise to allow verification of the dismantlement of Tongchang Village, Punggye Village and Yongbyon in exchange,” Aum said.

Quite a few of the experts expect a formal declaration ending the Korean War. Jung Park, SK-Korea Foundation Chair at the Brookings Institution, said that the summit could result in an end-of-war declaration, noting that Trump mentioned “peace” during his State of the Union address at the beginning of this month and that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that a “peace mechanism” would be discussed during the summit.

“Whether it’s a peace declaration or an end-of-war declaration, I wouldn’t be surprised if North Korea and the US made a statement saying they no longer have any hostile intentions toward each other,” Tokola said.

By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

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