[Correspondent’s column] Lack of N. Korea-US agreement proves need for more dialogue

Posted on : 2019-03-16 18:41 KST Modified on : 2019-03-16 18:41 KST
Deadlock can’t be broken with US’ all-or-nothing approach
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump at the Sofitel Legend Metropole Hanoi hotel on Feb. 28.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump at the Sofitel Legend Metropole Hanoi hotel on Feb. 28.

Several impressions have been shared by the reporters who went to Hanoi, Vietnam, to cover the second North Korea-US summit.

First, like most people, these reporters had wondered whether the two leaders would reach a big deal or a small one, but never imagined there would be no deal at all. Who could have guessed that two people who were sitting down together eight months after their first summit in Singapore last year – one of them after riding on a train for 66 hours and the other after flying halfway around the world – would just walk away from the negotiating table because the feeling wasn’t right?

When the news that the summit was about to end without an agreement reached the press center, where reporters from around the world had gathered, there was a genuine panic. One of my colleagues said, “It’s not the Korean Peninsula that has zero visibility, it’s me” – a blithe reference to the peninsula’s smothering air conditions of late. We’d all assumed that some agreement would be reached, forgetting the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump and the complexity of the North Korean nuclear issue, which has defied a solution for nearly 30 years. Some reporters quietly said that some soul-searching was in order.

Second, quite a few reporters made a visit to the Sofitel Legend Metropole Hanoi, the site of the summit, after the talks broke down. When I was covering the first North Korea-US summit in Singapore in June 2018, I didn’t even consider going to the Capella Hotel after the summit. But in Hanoi, the sense of disappointment led my feet to the Metropole. On the day after the summit, the garden where the two leaders had planned to have lunch was set for a wedding. In a place where two people had split up without any commitment to meet again, two other people were making a new beginning. The second summit won’t be the last time Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump meet, either.

Another thing that these reporters had in common is that they assumed that things would be quiet after the summit broke down, but the opposite proved true. Even after departing from the summit, the North Koreans and Americans tried to convince the public of their contradictory viewpoints on why there hadn’t been an agreement, and media reports ratcheted up tension by drawing upon commercial satellite imagery to argue that the North was about to launch a satellite or test a missile. Day after day, the US has been pushing for a grand bargain instead of step-by-step denuclearization. This means that neither side wants to permanently end the dialogue.

The story of what exactly happened at the summit in Hanoi and what was discussed in offices in Washington and Pyongyang probably won’t come out until someone publishes their memoirs someday. But the collapse of discussions in Hanoi has made several things clear.

Trump likely sensed how sanctions were impacting N. Korea during summit

North Korea wants relief from the key sanctions in exchange for shutting down its Yongbyon nuclear complex, but the US has clarified its stance that the sanctions won’t be lifted until the North dismantles not only Yongbyon but all other nuclear facilities and weapons of mass destruction. During his meeting with Kim, it’s likely that Trump found himself doubting Kim’s commitment to denuclearization and that he glimpsed how sanctions were impacting the North. That seems to have reinforced Trump’s confidence in an all-for-nothing deal. Since Trump has confirmed that both Democrats and Republicans believe that no deal is better than a bad one, he’ll be strongly tempted to hold to his present attitude.

It has also become clearer that the two sides need to build up much more trust if they’re going to reach a daring agreement. It’s unrealistic for North Korea to abruptly abandon the nuclear program it’s spent decades building out of confidence in Trump. The US is also justified in its concerns that the money freed up by lifting sanctions would flow into the North’s weapons programs, given the current level of trust between the two sides. Paradoxically, this lack of an agreement demonstrates the need for the two sides to meet more frequently, for more in-depth dialogue.

Hwang Joon-bum
Hwang Joon-bum

Fortunately, the two sides have propped open the door for dialogue. This is the time for them to prepare for another round of calm bargaining over their demands. Though the US is unlikely to be the first to offer a compromise plan, critics are saying that the deadlock can’t be broken with an all-or-nothing approach. My expectation is that the day will come when the two leaders become more flexible in their demands than they are right now.

By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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