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South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during the second inter-Korean summit at Unification Pavilion (Tongil-gak) on the North Korean side of Panmunjom on May 26

After South Korean President Moon Jae-in officially expressed his interest in an inter-Korean summit and invited US President Donald Trump to visit South Korea during a summit with Trump in Washington, DC, on Apr. 11, the next question is the specific timeframe of future summits between South and North Korea, North Korea and the US, and South Korea and the US. Considering that developments on the Korean Peninsula since last year have depended on the “top-down” method of bold decisions by leaders, each of the summits held in the first half of this year is sure to be a crucial watershed.

To begin with, the South Korean government is likely to suggest holding an inter-Korean summit around the end of April, which would mark the first anniversary of the Panmunjom Declaration, announced on Apr. 27, 2018. If the goal is to hold an inter-Korean summit at Panmunjom with an agenda that is technical and focused on a single topic, a timeframe of the end of April wouldn’t appear to be physically impossible. For one thing, it wouldn’t require the elaborate protocol or preparations necessary for North Korean Kim Jong-un paying a reciprocal visit to South Korea.

That said, this issue is directly linked to North Korea’s own strategic timeframe, which will determine whether the North agrees to go along with the summit. If an inter-Korean summit can’t be held in late April, another possibility that has been raised is holding the summit on the first anniversary of the second inter-Korean summit, which was held on the North Korean side of Panmunjom on May 26, 2018.

Trump’s trip to South Korea is expected to coincide either with his state visit to Japan at the end of May or his attendance at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, at the end of June. But given predictions that Trump may not attend the G20 summit, his visit to South Korea could happen as early as late May.

“President Moon invited President Trump to visit South Korea at his earliest convenience, and President Trump expressed his gratitude for the invitation,” said Blue House National Security Office Director Chung Eui-yong during a press briefing shortly after the South Korea-US summit. The implication is that the US responded positively to the invitation.

A potential visit to South Korea by Trump has also prompted speculation about the possibility of Kim, Moon, and Trump holding a trilateral summit at Panmunjom. But such a summit would have to be backed up by a substantial event, such as a formal declaration of the end of the Korean War, and that would itself require North Korea and the US to make substantial progress on narrowing their differences. For now, therefore, while such a summit isn’t impossible, it doesn’t seem very likely, either.

By Yi Yong-in, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]