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North Korea’s Korean Central Television KCTV broadcasted footage of a test launch of short-range projectiles from the day before. (Yonhap News)

The South Korea and US governments remain cautious about characterizing a projectile launched by North Korea on May 4 as a “missile,” despite speculation from military experts that it was a short-range ballistic missile referred to as the “North Korean Iskander.” Some observers are also questioning whether the entire “missile” controversy is a case of politicking, as missiles are considered to be encompassed within the “projectile” category.

“Based on the shape, it appears to be a surface-to-surface [projectile],” the National Intelligence Service (NIS) was quoted by Bareunmirae Party lawmaker Lee Hye-hoon as saying in a May 6 report to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee.

Lee also reported the NIS as saying it could not give an answer on whether the projectile was a missile because the matter was “under analysis.”

“There are many complex things to be analyzed in terms of the projectiles’ specifications, actual flight distance and range, and so forth, which could take several months,” the NIS also said. The explanation hinted that the projectiles included a surface-to-surface weapon along the lines of the “North Korean Iskander,” but did not define it as a missile per se.

The NIS’ stance echoed that of the Ministry of National Defense (MND), which described the projectile as a “new tactical guided weapon” while reserving judgment on whether it was a missile.

“In terms of its shape, it is similar to the ‘North Korean Iskander’ that North Korea unveiled at its military review on Feb. 8 of last year for the 70th anniversary of the North Korean military’s foundation, but because this would be the first time it was actually launched, we would have to analyze the specific data, flight trajectory, strike capabilities, and so forth before making a determination on whether it is a missile,” an MND official said.

The NIS also said it was “not viewing [the launch drills] as being provocative as in the past.” The agency suggested that while there was an element of pressure directed at the outside, North Korea seemed to be moderating its tone to avoid ruining the climate for denuclearization talks.

“[The NIS] stressed that the projectiles did not cross any national boundaries or cause damage to South Korea, the US, or Japan,” Lee said.

The US government has also avoided characterizing the projectiles as missiles. Appearing in interviews with Fox News and ABC on May 5, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not refer to the projectiles as being missiles. Indeed, his remarks emphasized that the projectiles had not crossed any boundary lines.

“The moratorium [on nuclear and missile testing by North Korea] was focused [. . .] on intercontinental missile systems, the ones that threaten the United States for sure,” he said. His remarks echoed a previous tweet from US President Donald Trump, who said that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un “does not want to break his promise to me.”

The approach stood in contrast with analyses from US news outlets and experts identifying the projectiles as missiles. CNN reported on one of the projectiles being “likely a short-range missile,” sharing satellite images obtained from the Middlebury Institute. It also included an early analysis finding from a US government official concluding that the North Korean projectile was “being looked at as a possible short-range ballistic missile.”

The cautious approaches from South Korean and US government authorities appears to be motivated by a desire to avoid sabotaging potential North Korea-US dialogue. A response in kind to the North’s show of force would completely derail the diplomatic approach, which has been at an impasse since the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi.

By not characterizing the North Korean projectile as a missile, South Korea and the US are both effectively sidestepping a potential controversy over whether the launch constitutes a violation of UN Security Council resolutions demanding a halt to all forms of ballistic missile launches.

Some observers are suggesting the debate over whether the North Korean projectile was a missile or not is a wasteful exercise.

“The ‘projectile’ concept includes missiles,” said Kim Jong-dae, a Justice Party lawmaker and member the National Assembly National Defense Committee.

“This debate over whether [the projectile] should be seen as a missile is nothing more than politicking,” he insisted.

Kim also speculated that Pyongyang would “face the question of how to maintain its security after letting go of its nukes.”

“This drill could be read as signaling intentions to rely on tactical weaponry rather than nukes for its security,” he suggested.

By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer, and Noh Ji-won and Jang Na-rye, staff reporters

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