S. Korean experts mostly praise Moon’s efforts toward inter-Korean relations over past 2 years

Posted on : 2019-05-08 17:07 KST Modified on : 2019-05-08 17:07 KST
Disappointment stemmed from S. Korea’s lack of proactive role in peace process
South Korean President Moon Jae-in waves to a crowd of North Koreans at the Rungrado 1st of May Stadium in Pyongyang on Sept. 19. (photo pool)
South Korean President Moon Jae-in waves to a crowd of North Koreans at the Rungrado 1st of May Stadium in Pyongyang on Sept. 19. (photo pool)

South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s greatest success in the areas of unification, foreign policy and security over the past two years has been advancing denuclearization and peace negotiations to the next level through summit diplomacy between South and North Korea and between North Korea and the US, experts said. What they found disappointing was South Korea’s lack of a unique strategy or a proactive role in that process.

Wi Seong-rak, former ambassador to Russia, offered the following assessment of Moon’s successes: “Moon created a historic and unprecedented opportunity by elevating the denuclearization and peace negotiations to the level of summit diplomacy. He needs to open the window of opportunity even wider while continuing to manage the risks of summit diplomacy.”

Hong Min, director of the North Korea research office at the Korea Institute for National Unification, also gave high points to Moon. “The creation of a trilateral channel among South Korea, North Korea, and the US, which allowed the formation of trust between Kim and Moon, Kim and Trump, and Moon and Trump, enabled the negotiations, which had been stuck at the working level, to gain cohesion and focus,” Hong said. When asked about specific things that Moon had done well in the context of summit diplomacy, several experts identified the speech he made to the citizens of Pyongyang during the inter-Korean summit held there in September 2018.

The implementation of the inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) also received a positive assessment. “South and North Korea included denuclearization and a peace regime in the Panmunjom Declaration, and their agreement to what is basically arms control in their military agreement represented a new path,” said Koo Kab-woo, professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

According to Lee Jeong-cheol, a professor at Soongsil University, the best thing that Moon has done was “proposing the postponement of joint military exercises with the US, which elicited a positive response from Kim Jong-un in his New Year’s address in 2018, and taking the Pyeongchang Olympics as an opportunity for launching the peace process.”

When asked about the disappointing aspects of Moon’s policy in these areas, many experts pointed to South Korea’s failure to craft a strategy of leadership in denuclearization or to play a more proactive role in those efforts.

“While Moon managed to convince Kim during their Pyongyang summit to agree to dismantle its Yongbyon nuclear complex, we weren’t able to come up with a concrete denuclearization plan based on that or to make much progress in convincing North Korea and the US to go along with it,” said Kim Joon-hyung, a professor at Handong Global University.

Cho Sung-ryul, a research consultant for the Institute for National Security Strategy, also lamented the lack of a creative alternative. “Once direct dialogue between North Korea and the US began, the South Korean government let them take over every aspect of denuclearization,” Cho said.

“The cause of the current deadlock can be attributed to the South Korean government’s failure to check with North Korea about the roadmap to denuclearization and what its endpoint would be when the North declared its commitment to denuclearization in March 2018,” said Shin Beom-cheol, head of the Center for Security and Unification at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

“South Korea’s relationship with China and Japan is also important for establishing peace on the Korean Peninsula. But South Korea has been unable to advance its relations with China after settling the THAAD issue, and its relations with Japan are strained,” said Lee Gwan-se, director of the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University.

“Despite the progress in denuclearization and peace negotiations, the government hasn’t done a good job at managing public opinion at home, which has exacerbated conflict inside South Korea,” observed Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

By the Unification and Diplomacy team

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