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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin give a toast during a summit banquet in Vladivostok on Apr. 25. (TASS/Yonhap News)

“Establishing peace on the Korean Peninsula through progress with denuclearization and the advancement of inter-Korean relations.”

This in a nutshell represents the tasks named by experts as the biggest priorities for the Moon Jae-in administration in the areas of reunification, foreign affairs, and national security. Their selection read as a call for the administration spend its remaining three years ushering peace on the peninsula to a point of no turning back. It also echoes the findings of a survey in which respondents were asked to name the top three tasks, with eight of 10 naming the “establishment of a de facto end-of-war situation through increased inter-Korean military trust.”

In terms of progress with denuclearization, the top two responses – named by two experts each – were “proceeding beyond a freeze to initiate the abandonment of nuclear weapons and nuclear material” and “agreeing on a comprehensive denuclearization road map and freezing the North Korean nuclear program.” Both represent fairly tall orders, particularly amid the impasse in denuclearization talks since the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi. Some are now calling upon the Moon administration to show greater flexibility in adapting its denuclearization and peace negotiation priorities to suit the reality amid concerns that it only has a diplomatic window of about one year left.

“All the other things could end up reversed all at once if we don’t reach an irreversible stage of denuclearization at least by the time the next administration takes office,” said Kim Joon-hyung, professor at Handong Global University, who named initiating a nuclear weapon and material abandonment process as the number one task.

Lee Kwan-se, director of the Kyungnam University Institute for Far Eastern Studies, predicted, “It could have a serious negative impact on developments in inter-Korean relations and peace on the Korean Peninsula if we cannot get the denuclearization process initiated within three years.”

Shin Beom-cheol, who heads the national security and unification center at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, named agreeing on a road map and freezing North Korea’s nuclear program as the top priority. For sustainable peace to be established on the Korean Peninsula, the North Korean nuclear threat needs to be eliminated, and agreeing on a road map and freezing the nuclear program are crucial as the first stage of that process, he argued.

“A comprehensive agreement must include denuclearization as the final state,” he said.

Hong Min, director of the North Korea research office at the Korea Institute for National Unification, also selected “reaching a final agreement on the denuclearization progress” as a first priority.

“If an agreement can be reached on the denuclearization process, we can go some way toward creating a sustainable course,” he suggested, predicting that a successful approach would “combine a South Korea, North Korea, and US working group to discuss denuclearization and regime security with a Northeast Asian peace and security consultative group to ensure it.”

Among those stressing the importance of advancing inter-Korean relations, two of the experts named “making inter-Korean summits a regular event” as a top future priority. The argument is based on the contributing role the three inter-Korean summits held last year are viewed as having played in driving the “top-down” approach to North Korea-US denuclearization talks and easing military tensions on the peninsula.

“In terms of issues like denuclearization, establishing a peace regime, and normalizing North Korea-US relations, we’ve already passed the stage of matters being dealt with at the working level,” said Yang Moo-jin, professor at the University of North Korean Studies, who stressed the importance of maintaining the current top-down approach.

Lee Jung-chul, a professor at Soongsil University, said, “The most important task in the future vision for the Korean Peninsula is the pursuit of a de facto political union.”

“Holding regular inter-Korean summits is an important part of a national union,” he said.

In a survey asking respondents to rank the top three tasks for the Moon administration, eight out of 10 experts named “establishment of a de facto end-of-war situation through increased inter-Korean military trust.” The findings appeared to reflect hopes that the current situation of inter-Korean military confrontation can be laid to rest, regardless of whether progress is made with denuclearization.

“The structure behind the military clashes between South and North are an issue that the two sides will have to resolve first, regardless of any resolution to the nuclear issue,” said Cho Sung-ryul, an advisory council member at the Institute for National Security Strategy.

Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Kyungnam University, suggested establishing and operating a joint military commission between South and North.

“We need to provide a driving force to place inter-Korean relations in a state of irreversible progress through systematic implementation of the agreement on inter-Korean military issues,” he said.

The support shown by five experts for “quickly resuming and promoting inter-Korean economic cooperation” also read as a call for independent advancements in inter-Korean relations.

“We need to resume operations at the Kaesong Industrial Complex and tourism at Mt. Kumgang and begin modernization of [North Korean] railways and roads within the next three years,” Hong said.

Also ranking among the responses were calls for normalization of South Korea’s relationships with China and Japan and multilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia.

By the Unification and Diplomacy Team

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]