[News analysis] A vicious cycle of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula in NK-US tit-for-tat

Posted on : 2019-05-11 14:58 KST Modified on : 2019-05-11 14:58 KST
US’ seizure and confiscation of N. Korea cargo vessel as response to short-range missile launches
North Korea conducted a test launch of short-range projectiles on May 9 under the supervision of leader Kim Jong-un
North Korea conducted a test launch of short-range projectiles on May 9 under the supervision of leader Kim Jong-un

The US Donald Trump administration is pursuing tough measures against North Korea with its announcement of the seizure of a North Korean vessel for sanctions violations as well as the initiation of confiscation procedures. The apparent response to North Korea’s recent series of projectile launches signals an intensifying war of nerves between the two sides. Some are now expressing fears of a vicious cycle of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula if the North Korea-US tit-for-tat continues.

On May 9, the US Justice Department announced the seizure the North Korean cargo vessel Wise Honest last year for transporting coal in violation of US and UN Security Council sanctions. The department also said it had initiated civil legal procedures the same day with a New York federal court to confiscate the vessel.

“The Wise Honest, one of North Korea’s largest bulk carriers, was used to illicitly ship coal from North Korea and to deliver heavy machinery to the DPRK,” the Justice Department said.

The 17,000-ton vessel is reportedly North Korea’s second largest. It was detained by Indonesian authorities in April 2018 while sailing from the North Korean port of Nampo with 26,500 tons of coal (worth approximately US$3 million). Previously, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution in July 2017 banning exports of coal, North Korea’s largest export product. In July 2018, a US court issued a warrant for the vessel’s seizure. The vessel is currently en route to the US territory of Samoa in the South Pacific.

This is the first time the US has seized a North Korean marine vessel. The US has been closely monitoring North Korea’s transactions of coal and other items using ship-to-ship transfers. With its latest move to exercise force by actually seizing and confiscating the vessel, it went beyond the approach of simply adding North Korean or third-party vessels found violating sanctions to the list of US or UN sanctions targets.

The Justice Department insisted there was no connection between its announcement regarding the Wise Honest’s seizure and confiscation and North Korea’s projectile launches on May 4 and 9. But the timing has some reading it as a tough message of pressure toward Pyongyang, signaling that the US does not plan to relieve sanctions in the face of North Korea’s repeated shows of force.

“With this seizure, we have significantly disrupted that cycle [of North Korea continuing to evade sanctions],” a New York federal prosecutor said.

North Korea carried out a “firepower strike drill” on May 9 under the supervision of leader Kim Jong-un. Some believe the projectiles to be the “North Korean Iskander” and 240mm multiple rocket launchers.
North Korea carried out a “firepower strike drill” on May 9 under the supervision of leader Kim Jong-un. Some believe the projectiles to be the “North Korean Iskander” and 240mm multiple rocket launchers.

Trump indicates no plans to alter US approach to “big deal”

President Donald Trump also signaled that he does not plan to alter his approach of demanding a “big deal” exchanging sanctions relief for North Korea’s complete denuclearization. Speaking to reporters the same day, he said the US was looking “very seriously” at North Korea’s projectile launches, adding that “nobody is happy about it.”

“I know they want to negotiate. They’re talking about negotiating. But I don’t think they’re ready to negotiate,” he said at the time.

At the same time, Trump kept the door open for dialogue. Noting that the projectiles were “smaller missiles – short-range missiles,” he added, “The relationship [with North Korea] continues.”

“North Korea has tremendous potential, economically. And I don’t think [leader Kim Jong-un is] going to blow that,” he also said.

Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan also told reporters the US would “stick to our diplomacy” and had not “changed our operations or our posture.”

Both sides trying to strengthen position before next round of negotiations

Kim Joon-hyung, a professor at Handong Global University, said North Korea’s projectile launches and the US announcement of the vessel’s seizure and civil forfeiture procedures were intended to “cement their positions before entering the later stages of negotiations.” According to this analysis, neither side wants talks to break down completely, but each is making its own movements to increase the strength of their hand before sitting down together again.

Some are also predicting North Korea will intensify the tenor of its objections.

“North Korea is going to fire back to its vessel’s seizure in a way that does not violate its agreements,” predicted Cho Sung-ryul, a research consultant for the Institute for National Security Strategy.

“It could stretch out its period of not responding in terms of negotiations, or it could make a show of force by test-launching a short-range or intermediate-range missile [as opposed to a long-range missile or ICBM],” he said. In 2005, an agreement was reached at the Six-Party Talks on the nuclear issue with the September 19 Joint Statement, but the situation was plunged back into crisis soon after when the US Treasury Department froze North Korean funds at the Banco Delta Asia (BDA).

Current trend could derail negotiations completely

For that reason, some are voicing fears that the current trend could lead to the negotiations becoming completely derailed.

“It’s clear that North Korea has been ratcheting up the level of its provocations since [the second North Korea-US summit in] Hanoi, and the US response to that has also been clear,” said former South Korean Ambassador to Russia Wi Sung-lac.

“The structure right now leaves no options except ‘tit-for-tat.’ We need to get away from that framework quickly,” Wi advised.

The message reads as a warning that the war of nerves could speed out of control over time, particularly in light of Kim Jong-un’s declaration of the end of 2019 as a deadline for negotiations and the US presidential election looming next year.

“The top priority is to prevent escalation,” stressed Koo Kab-woo, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent, and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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