hankyoreh

Under the supervision of leader Kim Jong-un

Two projectiles launched by North Korea on May from Kusong, North Pyongan Province, were deemed to be identical in launch method and ballistic body type to a tactical guided weapon launched from the Hodo Peninsula in Wonson five days earlier. Many military experts suspected the projectiles were likely to have been the short-range missile known as the “North Korean Iskander.” On May 10, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) revised its assessment on the projectiles from “suspecting” to “concluding” that they were short-range missiles. But the JCS remained cautious on the question of whether the projectiles were ballistic missiles, insisting additional analysis on their flight characteristics, launch angle, range, and speed would be needed.

Photographs of a missile published by North Korea through the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) that day in an announcement of long-range strike drills on May 9 by front line and western front defense units showed it to be outwardly similar to the Iskander, a Russian short-range missile. North Korea appears to have initially launched the same type of missile from the Hodo Peninsula off the eastern coast on May 4 before launching two more from Kusong on May 9. North Korea was reportedly testing the missile’s reliability and stability by first test-launching it toward the East Sea and then crossing over its territory from western North Korea.

The JCS estimated that the first missile traveled a distance of 420 km and the second a distance of 270 km. While the missile’s maximum altitude had been estimated at 50km up until the day before, the number was revised to 45–50km in a National Assembly report that day. The transporter erector launcher (TEL) shown in the photograph was a tracked vehicle that differed from the wheeled vehicle observed on May 4. The tracked version is seen as more advanced than the wheeled version due to its excellent maneuverability in difficult terrain such as streams and hills.

The JCS held off from concluding whether the projectiles were ballistic missiles. A ballistic missile is a missile that travels to the outer edge of the atmosphere following its launch and then traces a trajectory as it flies. If the latest missiles are found to have been ballistic missiles, it would place North Korea in violation of UN resolutions.

Based on the short range and low altitude, additional analysis is reportedly required to determine whether the latest missiles launched by North Korea were ballistic missiles. The precision guidance observed in the final stages suggested they were closer in characteristics to tactical missiles used for precise strikes on targets, sources said.

“Generally speaking, ballistic missiles do not have a high degree of precision and are used for purposes of mass destruction,” a military official said.

“We’ll need to look into whether the latest missiles conform to that,” the official added.

In a National Assembly report the same day, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) was quoted as saying that the analysis “has been delayed due to the possibility of this being a new weapons system not familiar from the analysis patterns to date.”

A military official also dismissed foreign press reports that the US Pentagon had concluded the projectiles to have been ballistic missiles.

“My understanding is that that is not an official position,” the official said.

A military source said, “So far, we’ve been looking at the projectiles launched by North Korea as short-range missiles.”

“That’s the shared assessment of South Korea and the US,” the source stressed.

After the missile launch, North Korea also conducted fire exercises in the nearby area. Photographs published by the KCNA show 240mm multiple rocket launchers and 152mm self-propelled guns. The 152mm self-propelled gun unveiled by North Korea in a September 2018 military review for the 70th anniversary of the government’s establishment reportedly has a range of over 40km. It’s a sign that the North is also focusing its efforts on improving its conventional weapon capacity. According to the NIS report, the 240mm multiple-rocket launchers were directed toward the West Sea.

North Korea described the exercises as “firepower strike drills utilizing long-range strike methods.” The reference was similar to its characterization of the exercises on May 4 as firepower strike drills using long-range, large-caliber multiple rocket launchers and tactical guided weapons. The move is being interpreted as having multiple aims, including deterring South Korea-US joint exercises and strengthening internal cohesion while pressuring Washington to change its approach in the wake of the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi.

By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]