hankyoreh

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump during their first summit in Singapore on June 12.

One year after the summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump in Singapore on June 12, 2018, the summit that was called the “meeting of the century” and kindled the hope of peace, the nuclear talks between the two countries are at a standstill. North Korea and the US are in a standoff, each waiting for the other side to make the first move.

From June 7 to 10, the Hankyoreh consulted 10 experts on Korean Peninsula issues — five from South Korea and five from the US — about the causes of this standoff, what South Korea, North Korea, and the US should do to resolve it, and prospects for the future.

When asked when the deadlock between North Korea and the US will be resolved, some experts from South Korea and the US cautiously predicted that a breakthrough would be reached in the late summer or fall. There were also quite a few experts who hinted at the requirements for such a breakthrough while refraining from commenting specifically on their expected timeframe.

Lee Jeong-cheol, a professor at Soongsil University, predicted that the situation will change “around October.” That’s when North Korea will wrap up preparations for one of two options, namely resuming negotiations or launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

Hong Min, director of the North Korea research office at the Korea Institute for National Unification, stressed the possibility of South and North Korea taking the initiative in July or August to lay the foundation for North Korea and the US resuming talks in September.

Kim Yeong-jun, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Strategy, settled on the relatively early date of August as the timeframe for resolving the deadlock. His reasons are that North Korea will have wrapped up its internal adjustments around that time and that the US will probably also be seeking to resume negotiations before the fall, when the campaign for the 2020 presidential election will start to heat up.

“Trump wants a foreign policy victory, and Kim Jong-un needs sanctions relief. Trump won’t want to face the possibility of [North Korea] carrying out an ICBM test during an election year,” said Frank Aum, a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace. Aum cautiously predicted that negotiations will resume this fall.

But Ken Gause, a research program director at the US Center for Naval Analyses (CAN) research and analysis organization, and Lee Geun, a professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University, both said that the deadlock will continue for the time being, without mentioning a timeframe. Since the US administration is focusing its efforts on internal issues and relations with China, Gause and Lee believe, it’s unlikely to see the swift resumption of dialogue as necessary unless there’s a definite way to increase Trump’s chances of being reelected.

Nearly all experts agreed that North Korea and the US need to quickly return to working-level negotiations. Joseph DeTrani, former US special envoy to the Six-Party Talks, said that “working-level deliberations between the two countries’ envoys to the negotiations need to quickly resume,” while Aum emphasized that “time is running out” and that “the US and North Korea need to make their move soon.”

“The deadlock between North Korea and the US could be resolved this summer if summits between the leaders of South Korea, North Korea, and the US are held by early July,” said Harry J. Kazianis, senior director of Korean Studies at the Council for the National Interest in the US. Otherwise, Kazianis said, the end of the year is likely to see a North Korean ICBM test and high tensions.

The experts were in relative agreement about the causes of the deadlock: generally speaking, that North Korea and the US have conflicting interests and different approaches to the process of denuclearization. There are considerable differences, experts said, between the two countries’ perspective on the ultimate goal of denuclearization, as well as between the US’ preference for the swift step-by-step implementation of an all-in-one comprehensive agreement and the North’s preference for building trust with the US before implementing agreements in stages.

Other causes for the deadlock suggested by experts are “the US’ all-in-one deal” and “inadequate trust” between South Korea, North Korea, and the US” (Koh Yu-hwan, a professor at Dongguk University) and the possibility that Kim Jong-un “doesn’t intend to keep his promise about denuclearization” (Bruce Klinger, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation).

As for what South Korea can do to resolve the deadlock, experts emphasized the importance of an inter-Korean summit and the need to produce a concrete mediation proposal. Aum offered the following plan: during the South Korea-US summit at the end of this month, the two countries could sign off on swapping initial sanctions relief for the shutdown of the Yongbyon nuclear complex and on a comprehensive deal that would include a step-by-step implementation process and then submit that for North Korea’s consideration.

There were numerous calls from experts for North Korea to provide a concrete definition of the final stage of denuclearization and to signal the end of provocations.

Many experts think that the US “needs to keep sending North Korea overtures for dialogue.” Other steps that the US should take, experts said, include shifting away from the policy of maximum pressure, minimizing unilateralism, and resolving the issue of the North Korean ship Wise Honest, which was seized on charges of violating sanctions on the North.

By Kim Ji-eun and Park Min-hee, staff reporters, and Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]