hankyoreh

Xi Jinping

“[The two leaders] reached a shared understanding on the issues they discussed during the summit.” - The Rodong Sinmun, June 21

“I [Kim Jong-un] completely agree with the General Secretary [Xi Jinping]’s accurate analysis of the China-North Korea relationship and future prospects.” - Xinhua News Agency, June 20

The above statements were the focus of media reports from both North and Chinese news outlets in regards to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s summit in Pyongyang on June 20. In short, the news reports highlighted the two leaders’ “shared understanding” on strategies aimed at achieving peace on the Korean Peninsula, including negotiations focused on resolving the North Korean nuclear issue.

Media outlets in North Korea and China refrained from directly stating whether Kim had made a “new proposal” in regards to the pressing issue of the summit, North Korea’s nuclear program. That being said, the specifics of their bilateral agreement on the nuclear issue and the agreement’s effect on events on the Korean Peninsula will soon be made clear. Xi will be meeting with US President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the G20 Osaka summit on June 28–29 to engage in more discussions. The next question is how Trump will respond to Xi’s “message from Kim Jong-un.” Moon, for his part, will be holding more discussions with Trump in Seoul on June 29-30 based on what he hears from Xi in Osaka. Blue House Spokesperson Ko Min-jung said on June 21 that “The North Korea-China summit and the soon-to-be-held South Korea-summit is expected to quickly restart dialogue and negotiations on the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

Ultimately, the results of the bilateral discussions in Osaka and Seoul may determine whether the recent North Korea-China summit becomes a “basis for peace” that allows negotiations to move forward smoothly or a “failed effort” that prolongs the stalemate. What’s clear is that a countdown has begun that will decide whether the efforts to achieve peace on the Korean Peninsula that began early last year will gain traction or fall back into the cycle of long-held, Cold War-era conflict and confrontation.

A number of indicators of what may happen can be confirmed through North Korean and Chinese media reports. Kim promised to “continue to negotiate” while Xi promised to “play an active role in bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula.” Their summit has, at the very least, promoted stability in the region.

There are, however, differences in how Kim and Xi emphasized the Pyongyang summit as reported by Chinese and North Korean news sources. This contrast stems from their different perspectives.

After the failure of the US-North Korean summit in Hanoi, Kim requires Xi’s political support to quell internal dissent and to adhere to the “party line” of concentrating all resources on building the North Korean economy. Quoted in the Rodong Sinmun, Kim called Xi’s visit to North Korea a “decisive occasion to demonstrate the immutability and invincibility of the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea]-China friendship before the world” and “is of great [political] significance to our [Workers’] Party [of Korea] membership and people.” The Rodong Sinmun’s June 21 edition had 10 pages instead of the regular four, and eight of those pages were devoted to news on the North Korea-China summit. In short, North Korea’s focus was on “demonstrating the immutability of the DPRK-China friendship.”

Meanwhile, Xi faces a “war” with the US over trade, advanced technology and platforms and thus has little desire to expand the US-China confrontation to include North Korea. Xi needs Kim to continue his efforts to negotiate with the US; Xi likely believed that the summit would be a runaway success if Kim agreed to continue negotiating. Xi’s need for North Korea to continue negotiations forms the foundation of his emphasis during the summit, as reported by Xinhua, that one of the reasons he visited North Korea was to “promote the political resolution to the Korean Peninsula issue.”

Here, a detailed analysis of Xi’s statements in North Korean and Chinese media is warranted. The Rodong Sinmun reported that Xi “strongly supported” Kim’s “implementation of a new strategy” to “drive the resolution of the Korean Peninsula issue forward.” In other words, he expressed complete support for Kim’s focus on reviving the North Korean economy and efforts to negotiate with the US. Xi also promised to “provide all assistance possible to resolve North Korea’s security and [economic] development concerns.” Xinhua reported that he also said China would “support the political resolution to the Korean Peninsula issue and help create the conditions to resolve the issue.” Ultimately, through his first visit to North Korea since gaining power, Xi declared his complete support for Kim Jong-un’s leadership and, in effect, told Kim to “make a decision” because “China will actively support you to resolve your country’s security and economic issues.” Xi was, in other words, implicitly putting pressure on Kim to refrain from cutting off negotiations with the US.

It is difficult to discern through Rodong Sinmun reports alone whether the new thrust of support Kim received from Xi will be used by North Korea to continue its defiance against US denuclearization efforts or as a basis to restart negotiations with the US. That said, given that – according to Xinhua reports - Kim told Xi “he totally agrees” with the Chinese leader and that he plans to ““learn from China’s experience with economic development and improving the public livelihood,” there is relatively little chance that Kim will “rock the boat” by moving away from negotiations with the US.

Observers are now looking to see how Trump will respond to the summit. Trump has long expressed discontent toward Xi’s “interference” in North Korea. Trump complained right after Kim and Xi’s second summit (in Dalian, China on May 7-8, 2018), “I will say I’m a little disappointed, because when Kim Jong-un had the meeting with President Xi [. . .] I think there was a little change in attitude from Kim Jong-un.” Soon after making that statement, he cancelled plans to hold the first North Korea-US summit. Following the recent North Korea-China summit, however, Trump has uncharacteristically refrained from making any public response. The world now must wait to see what kind of stance he will take after he hears Xi’s “message from Kim Jong-un” in Osaka.

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]