hankyoreh

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump

North Korea’s denuclearization along with trade and economic issues will most likely form the core agenda for the summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump on June 30. A high-level US official said that there will be no “surprise meeting” between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

In regards to Trump’s visit to South Korea from June 29 to 30, Joy Yamamoto, head of the Korea desk at the US State Department, said, “There’s no question that this [North Korea’s denuclearization] is the most important issue that’s facing both the ROK and the United States, and there’s no question that this will be the number-one topic for President Moon’s meetings with President Trump.” Her comments were made at the ROK-US Strategic Forum, which was hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Korea Foundation on June 24.

There is growing interest in what kind of message Trump will send to North Korea. He is reportedly considering a visit to the demilitarized zone (DMZ) and may be ready to present a plan that could revive North Korea-US dialogue. Trump told reporters that “it was a very nice letter” and that “We [the US and North Korea] have a good relationship together.” US Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun mentioned a “flexible approach” toward North Korea on June 19, which has led to speculation that the US may be opening the door to a “big deal” with the country.

Experts say, however, there is little chance that the US will make a “surprise proposal.” Cho Seong-ryoul, a senior research fellow at South Korea’s Institute for National Security Strategy, told the Hankyoreh, “[The South Korea-US summit] may allow South Korean-US leaders to confirm their stance on South Korean humanitarian aid toward North Korea that was mentioned during the South Korea-US summit in April. Trump may say that he will consider relaxing sanctions if North Korea shows its willingness to take real steps toward denuclearization.”

The message Trump sends to North Korea will also depend on the results of the US-China summit during the G20 Osaka summit on June 29, one day before the planned South Korea-US summit. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who visited North Korea on June 20-21, will give Trump a message from Kim Jong-un and discuss US-Chinese trade negotiations, and all of this could impact the atmosphere of the South Korea-US summit held soon thereafter.

During the summit, the US and South Korean leaders will also be discussing trade and economic issues. Yamamoto said during the forum that “they [Moon and Trump] will commit to is the enduring, strong bilateral relationship, the [South Korea-US] alliance. And that alliance is more than just the DPRK issues; it is about showing the world that together these two countries, these two governments can do extraordinary things, whatever they want. [. . .] But beyond that we’ve also shown that we can work on economic issues together.” Yamamoto cited the South Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as a success story. She also noted there is are “synergies” between Moon’s New Southern Policy on strengthening cooperation with Southeast Asian countries and Trump’s Indo-Pacific Strategy.

Kim Young-joon, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, told the Hankyoreh, “President Trump is faced with an upcoming presidential election so he may send a strong message that South Korea needs to cooperate more in regards to the [South Korea-US] trade balance.” The two leaders could also discuss sanctions against Iran and South Korea’s participation in the US confrontation with the Chinese company Huawei.

In regards to defense cost-sharing between the two countries, Yamamoto said during the forum that “we’re hoping that soon we will begin again negotiating the next Special Measures Agreement with Korea. And we will be asking for more of Korea’s contribution to the stationing of forces in Korea.” This suggests that Trump may ask South Korea to take on a larger burden in defense cost-sharing at the upcoming summit.

Meanwhile, when reporters asked a high-level US official whether Trump would be meeting Kim Jong-un, he said, “There’s no plans [to meet Kim]. [Trump] is going [there] to meet President Moon.”

By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent, and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]