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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi departs from Beijing Capital International Airport for Pyongyang on Sept. 2. (Yonhap News)

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who also serves on China’s State Council, paid a visit to Pyongyang on Sept. 2. While announcing Wang’s arrival in the North Korean capital on Monday, Korean Central Television reported that officials from North Korea’s Foreign Ministry and from the Chinese Embassy in Pyongyang had greeted Wang at Pyongyang International Airport.

There is speculation about whether Wang’s visit to North Korea, which comes shortly before the 70th anniversary of China and North Korea’s establishment of diplomatic relations on Oct. 6, prefigures North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s fifth visit to China. If Kim visits China next month for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it could have an impact on North Korea-US dialogue and other aspects of Korean Peninsula affairs.

Many believe that Wang, who is staying in Pyongyang through Sept. 4 on the invitation of North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho, will be meeting with Kim and Ri to discuss the idea of Kim visiting China in early October. There seems to be a strong possibility that Kim will highlight North Korea’s friendly relations with China by paying a visit on Oct. 1, while China is celebrating the 70th anniversary of the establishment of its communist government on Oct. 1 and the 70th anniversary of North Korea and China’s diplomatic relations on Oct. 6.

“This year marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea, and President Xi Jinping’s successful visit to North Korea this past June ushered in a new and historic era in our bilateral relations,” said Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang on Aug. 30. Geng went on to say that Wang’s current visit is designed to put into practice the shared visions of the two leaders.

“Wang is likely to discuss Kim’s proposed visit to China and to underline the two countries’ friendly and cooperative relationship on the 70th anniversary of their establishment of diplomatic relations. The two countries might also look for an excuse for North Korea to engage in dialogue with the US while reaffirming the importance of dialogue and a ‘phased and synchronous approach’ to the North Korean nuclear issue,” said Lee Hee-ok, a professor at Sungkyunkwan University.

Kim Jong-un’s second and third trips to China, on May 7-8, 2018, and on June 19-20, 2018, took place after Wang Yi held talks with Ri Yong-ho and met with Kim during a two-day trip to Pyongyang, on May 3-4.

With many experts saying that Kim is likely to visit China, the next question is what effect the close alignment between North Korea and China will have on stalled North Korea-US dialogue, and the two sides’ working-level negotiations in particular.

In the past, Kim has often visited China prior to resuming dialogue with the US. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited North Korea for the first time shortly after Kim made his first unofficial visit to China, on Mar. 25-28, 2018; Pompeo’s second trip to the North came after Kim’s second trip to China, on May 7-8; and about a month after that, on June 12, North Korea and the US held their first summit. Pompeo’s third visit to North Korea followed on the heels of Kim’s third visit to China, on June 19-20, and the second North Korea-US summit, at the end of February, took place after Kim’s fourth visit to China, on Jan. 7-10, 2019.

Experts are cautiously optimistic that we may see a rerun of the sequence of events in which Wang visits North Korea and Kim visits China, creating momentum for North Korea-US dialogue. “Wang’s visit to China is a decent sign for progress in North Korea-US relations,” said a former high-ranking official in the South Korean government.

“North Korea’s denuclearization is also tied to China’s national interest. If China brings up the North Korea-US denuclearization talks, it could help move those talks forward.”

Another interesting possibility is that China may be hoping that its mediation in the North Korea-US dialogue could help it mitigate its conflict with the US. “As the US-China conflict continues, China wants to show the US that it’s playing a positive role in resolving the deadlock on the North Korean nuclear issue. Wang is likely to try to create leverage for alleviating that conflict by mediating in the North Korea-US denuclearization talks while he’s visiting North Korea,” said Yang Gap-yong, head of research at the Institute for National Security Strategy.

This analysis suggests that we’re seeing a replay of China’s attempt to exploit its relationship with North Korea to cool down its dispute with the US by having Chinese President Xi Jinping visit North Korea on June 20, shortly before the China-US summit scheduled for the G20 summit at the end of that month.

But some argue that even if China does attempt to link the North Korean nuclear issue with its conflict with the US, that might only have a limited effect and might not lead to the resumption of North Korea-US dialogue. “If China attempts to use North Korea to ease its conflict with the US, North Korea has little of the flexibility needed to make that work,” said a former high-ranking official in the government.

In recent months, North Korea and China have been stepping up high-level exchange in a wide range of areas, covering politics, the economy, and the military. Kim Su-gil, director of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People’s Army (KPA), paid a visit to Beijing last month.

By Noh Ji-won and Park Min-hee, staff reporters

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]