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North Korean First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Choe Son-hui (Hankyoreh archives)

North Korean First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Choe Son-hui said on Oct. 1 that North Korea and the US had agreed to hold working-level talks on Oct. 5, following a preliminary meeting on the previous day. It looks like the North Korea-US talks are back on track after being derailed seven months ago by the two sides’ failure to reach an agreement in their second summit, in Hanoi.

In a statement released on Oct. 1 through the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Choe said, “The delegates of the DPRK side are ready to enter into the DPRK-US working-level negotiations.”

“It is my expectation that the working-level negotiations would accelerate the positive development of the DPRK-US relations,” the statement continued. This means that working-level negotiations are set to begin a little over three months after US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reached an agreement at Panmunjom on June 30 to hold them.

While Choe did not share the location of the preliminary discussions and working-level talks, Sweden and other third countries are being mentioned as possible sites. The working-level negotiations are to be the first with US State Department Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun and North Korean Foreign Ministry Roving Ambassador Kim Myong-gil – senior representative on the North Korean side – sitting down as representatives.

On Sept. 9, North Korea signaled through another statement by Choe that it intended to resume the working-level negotiations in late September. What ensued was an intense staring contest between the two sides as Pyongyang called for a “new calculation method” from Washington in a Sept. 16 statement by US Affairs Bureau Director Kwon Jong-gun, a Sept. 20 statement by Kim Myong-gil, a Sept. 27 statement by Foreign Ministry Advisor Kim Kye-gwan, and a Sept. 30 (New York time) address by UN Ambassador Kim Song. The announcement of a schedule for the talks came after Kim Song applied renewed pressure on the US to change its stance in his address, declaring that the US would “determine whether North Korea-US negotiations become a window of opportunity or provoke crisis.”

Trump previously sent positive signals to North Korea by dismissing hardliner John Bolton as National Security Advisor, his overt criticism of the so-called “Libyan model” of rewards following prior denuclearization, and his references to a “new method” – although he has yet to share specifics as to what the “new method” will consist of.

While an agreement has finally been reached on the negotiations’ schedule, many analysts suggested the two sides are unlikely to have found common ground in their backchannel discussions to date. Cho Sung-ryul, a research consultant for the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), observed, “To judge by Kim Song’s UN address on Sept. 30, the working-level negotiations appear to be taking place amid a situation of continued difference of opinion between North Korea and the US.”

“The reason the schedule has preliminary negotiations on Oct. 4 and working-level talks [starting] on Oct. 5 is because they need to coordinate their positions in the preliminary talks,” Cho said.

Differences reportedly remain sharp between the two sides over the methods of denuclearization, the sanctions issue, and the nature of the working-level talks.

With its unusual move of having four different statements and an address given by different officials over the past three weeks or so, Pyongyang stressed the need for an approach of “step-by-step” denuclearization based on “building trust.” Meanwhile, the US reportedly remains unchanging in its insistence that Pyongyang come out with a definition of complete denuclearization (end state) and a road map first.

North Korea has demanded security guarantees and sanctions relief or removal in answer for denuclearization, while the US has reportedly been adamant on the sanctions issue in particular. Hong Min, director of the North Korea research office at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), said, “The US has been hinting at the possibility of a flexible approach in military and diplomatic terms, including adjustments to South Korea-US joint military exercises and a declaration ending the [Korean] War as progress is made with North Korea’s denuclearization, but it continues to insist that there can be no sanctions relief or removal before North Korea’s complete denuclearization.”

The two sides have also shown differences in their assessment of the nature of the working-level negotiations. Pyongyang is viewing the talks as a preliminary step for a third North Korea-US summit. Washington, in contrast, has expressed that the two sides might proceed toward a third summit if they first reach an agreement at the working-level talks on denuclearization measures involving the dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear complex plus “something extra” with other facilities, and an “early harvest” that would allow for the exchange of some level of security guarantee measures.

Another question is what effect the looming threat of impeachment for Trump might have. Cho Sung-ryul suggested, “With Trump needing diplomatic results more than before, he might have communicated flexibility to the North in order to reach some kind of bold deal, and North Korea is going to take advantage of the situation.”

The unprecedented efforts North Korea has made to prepare for the working-level talks also read as a positive signal. Hong Min said, “Since announcing the resumption of working-level negotiations on Sept. 9, North Korea has been steadily preparing with the messages it has sent to the US through four different statements and an address.”

“They seem to be signaling their commitment to producing something at the working-level talks that will lead to the North Korean and US leaders meeting and signing something within the year,” he said.

In remarks the same day, Blue House Spokesperson Ko Min-jung said, “We look forward to these working-level negotiations bringing substantive progress quickly toward the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of permanent peace.”

By Park Min-hee, Noh Ji-won, and Seong Yeon-cheol, staff reporters

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Caption: North Korean First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Choe Son-hui (Hankyoreh archives)