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On Oct. 3

Thirteen hours after announcing a schedule to resume working-level denuclearization negotiations with the US, North Korea launched a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) believed to be from the Pukguksong class. The Pukguksong missiles are intermediate-range ballistic missiles with ranges of 1,000km or more. While North Korea has held several launches of short-range projectiles since May, this was the first SLBM it has launched in that time – a move seen as ratcheting up the level of its tactics ahead of the working-level talks with Washington.

The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) headquarters said on Oct. 2 that the South Korean military “spotted an unidentified ballistic missile launched by North Korea to the east from the waters northeast of Wonsan, Kangwon Province, at around 7:11 am today.”

“The ballistic missile launched here is believed to be from the Pukguksong class,” it said. Launched from the waters 17km northeast of Wonsan, the missile was detected as reaching a maximum altitude of around 910km with a range of around 450km. Given the 1,000–3,000km range of ballistic missiles from the Pukguksong class, the shorter range appeared to be due to the projectile being launched at a high angle.

“South Korean intelligence authorities are conducting a detailed analysis on the additional properties,” JCS said.

Pukguksong Missile data

The launch by North Korea came a day after the release of a statement by North Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui announcing that Pyongyang and Washington had “agreed to have preliminary contact on Oct. 4 and hold working-level negotiations on Oct. 5.” Analysts suggested the North is now ratcheting up its pressure against the US ahead of the negotiations: while keeping its promise to US President Donald Trump not to conduct nuclear testing or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches, it is using a stronger show of force with the SLBM launch in order to pressure the US into approaching the talks with a “new calculation method.”

An SLBM is seen as having different strategic significance from a short-range missile due to the secrecy of the submarines used to launch it. While questions remain over whether North Korea has the submarine capabilities or missile performance level to actually threaten the US, SLBMs are considered a “sensitive” weapon grouped by the US among the “nuclear triad” alongside ICBMs and strategic bombers. The launch could cast a pall over Trump’s efforts to tout his achievement of security for the US through negotiations with North Korea.

“[North Korea] is trying to force concessions from the US by pressuring President Trump directly,” a South Korean government official said.

“It seems to signal that they might opt for an even stronger show of force if they don’t get what they want from these working-level negotiations,” the official added.

Cho Sung-ryul, a senior researcher for the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), said, “They’re warning that if the US doesn’t come out with a ‘new calculation method’ at these talks, they could launch an ICBM in the guise of a ‘satellite launch.’”

Bolstering the “pressure tactics” conclusion is speculation that Pyongyang may have announced the schedule with all of the differences surrounding the working-level negotiation agenda having yet been ironed out with Washington. The US’ vague announcement of the working-level talks with North Korea as falling “within the next week” suggested a contrast with North Korea, which specified individual dates for the preliminary contact and working-level negotiations.

“The cautious stance from the US may mean that they have yet to coordinate the agenda with the North, or that they don’t agree with the concept of ‘preliminary contact,’” Cho said.

“It looks as though they’re worried Pyongyang might not participate in the working-level negotiations if the results from the preliminary contact aren’t good,” he added.

Analysts also said the launch communicated that the North is strengthening its defense capabilities ahead of the denuclearization talks. Lee Soo-hyoung, a research fellow at INSS, said, “In military strategy terms, this signifies that North Korea is making progress with its program.” According to Lee’s analysis, the North appeared to be putting the finishing touches on its SLBM capabilities as last-resort means of ensuring its security ahead of denuclearization.

“There’s also an element of them making a show of force that says, ‘We are definitely committed to denuclearization, but if the US hesitates, our nuclear capabilities are growing.’ In effect, they’re calling on the US to approach the negotiations more proactively,” Lee suggested.

The key question now will be how the US reacts to the North’s pressure. Many analysts said the negotiations are unlikely to fall apart for the time being. Reuters quoted a US State Department spokesperson in Rome on Oct. 2 as saying, “We call on [North Korea] to refrain from provocations, abide by their obligations under UN Security Council Resolutions, and remain engaged in substantive and sustained negotiations to do their part to ensure peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and achieve denuclearization.”

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is currently visiting the Italian capital. The State Department spokesperson’s remarks were read as signaling that while the latest missile launch was in violation of a UNSC resolution prohibiting all ballistic missile launches by North Korea, the US does not intend to call off its negotiations with the North over the issue.

“While there is a difference in focus in terms of North Korea viewing the working-level negotiations as being a step toward a third summit with the US and the US emphasizing their role in generating denuclearization results, both sides have shown a firm commitment to holding proper talks this time,” said a foreign affairs source familiar with the two sides’ negotiations.

“The negotiations are not going to fall apart,” the source predicted. Confirmation that North Korean Foreign Ministry Roving Ambassador Kim Myong-gil, Pyongyang’s representative in the working-level negotiations, reserved a Chinese international airline ticket from Beijing to Stockholm on the afternoon of Oct. 3 suggests that the talks will be taking place in Stockholm according to the announced schedule.

Even if the US or UNSC takes issue with the latest launch violating a UNSC resolution, the recent signs of progress in North Korea-US dialogue suggest no additional sanctions are in the offing. In response to a North Korean SLBM launch in April 2016, the UNSC opted only to adopt a statement denouncing the move.

In an emergency standing committee meeting that day, the Blue House National Security Council (NSC) voiced strong concerns about the North Korean launch.

“We plan to make diplomatic efforts along with the US and the rest of the international community to ensure that the North Korea-US negotiations are successful and substantive progress is achieved toward the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and establishment of permanent peace,” it said.

By Yoo Kang-moon, Park Min-hee, and Lee Wan, staff reporters

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]