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South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo and US Defense Secretary Mark Esper hold a joint press conference in Bangkok announcing the postponement of a joint military exercise on Nov. 17.

The sudden announcement on Nov. 17 by top South Korean and US defense officials that this year’s joint air exercise will be postponed can be regarded as a political decision by the two countries’ presidents based on a consensus transcending their mutual differences. At heart, both presidents are determined to somehow sustain the Korean Peninsula Peace Process, which has had numerous ups and downs since the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics.

Trends on the Korean Peninsula are sure to be affected by how Seoul and Washington’s decision to postpone the exercise is viewed by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who has attacked the joint exercises, along with sanctions, as being a prime example of the two countries’ “policy of hostility” toward the North.

While pressuring the US to “drop out of the joint military drill or completely stop it,” Kim Yong-chol, chairman of North Korea’s Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, made the following remarks in a statement on Nov. 14: “I would like to believe that the remark of the US Secretary of Defense reflected the intention of President Trump, and appreciate it as part of positive efforts of the US side to preserve the motive force of the DPRK [North Korea]-US negotiations.” Given this statement, the predominant view is that North Korea won’t reject the American gesture right away.

US Defense Secretary Mark Esper officially announced the postponement of this year’s South Korea-US joint air exercise following a meeting with South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo in Bangkok on Nov. 17. During the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) in Seoul on Nov. 15, the two countries had agreed to continue adjusting the scale of the exercise that was supposed to replace the Vigilant Ace joint air exercise, which was originally scheduled for mid-November.

At the time, Jeong had said the two sides would reach the “optimal decision” with the goal of “achieving peace and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” and they ultimately settled on postponing the exercise. The two countries appear to have reached this decision during a meeting between Esper and South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the Blue House on Nov. 15. An official at the Blue House pointed out that the decision to postpone the exercises couldn’t have been made by the defense officials on their own, hinting that the decision was basically finalized during Moon and Esper’s meeting.

South Korea and the US’ decision is the latest in a string of diplomatic back-and-forth between the US and North Korea. Kwon Jong-gun, roving ambassador for North Korea's Foreign Ministry, said in a statement on Nov. 6 that if South Korea and the US pushed ahead with their joint air exercise, it would be a “declaration of confrontation.” The spokesperson of North Korea’s State Affairs Commission released a statement on Nov. 13, the first of its kind, which spoke of “betrayal” and accused the US, and implicitly Trump, of an “undisguised breach” and “open denial” of the agreement the two countries reached in Singapore on June 12, 2018. This elicited a same-day response from Esper, in which he said that “we will adjust our exercise posture either more or less depending on what diplomacy may require.”

Then on Nov. 14, Kim Myong-gil, North Korea’s leading envoy to its working-level talks with the US, expressed the North’s willingness to “meet with the US at any place and any time.” On the same day, Kim Yong-chol, chairman of North Korea’s Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, said he would like to regard Esper’s comment as being “part of positive efforts of the US side.”

Even as North Korea and the US trade public messages through respective media statements, it’s widely assumed that they’re also engaged in a clandestine tug-of-war to arrange another round of working-level talks in December. In a statement by a Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Sunday afternoon, North Korea warned that the battle of nerves would continue: “The nuclear issue would never be put under discussion before the withdrawal of the US hostile policy would be put on the agenda.”

A decision by South Korea and the US to postpone or cancel joint military exercises can be effective at shaking things up. At the end of 2017, when the Korean Peninsula was moving dangerously close to war, South Korean President Moon Jae-in publicly mentioned (on Dec. 19) the possibility of postponing joint exercises in order to ease tensions on the peninsula leading up to the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, pushing the various parties toward dialogue. That led to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declaring his willingness to send North Korean athletes to the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics (on Jan. 1, 2018) and Trump’s acceptance of a plan to postpone military exercises (on Jan. 4). This was followed by three inter-Korean summits and the first North Korea-US summit in history, setting the mood for peace on the Korean Peninsula. In short, postponing or halting the South Korea-US joint exercises that North Korea regards as “hostile behavior” can open the door for dialogue.

By Noh Ji-won and Lee Wan, staff reporters, and Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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