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Footage of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un providing on-site guidance of artillery drills on Changrin Islet broadcasted by the state-run Korean Central Television (KCTV) network on Nov. 25. (Yonhap News)

By providing on-site guidance during an artillery drill near the Northern Limit Line (NLL), North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has begun poking at the Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) between Seoul and Pyongyang concluded on Sept. 19 of last year, which has been considered a “red line” in inter-Korean relations. Coming at a time when relations between Pyongyang and Seoul are strained, his remarks read as a warning that even the Sept. 19 military agreement -- seen as a key achievement from the inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang last year -- may not be completely safe. While implementation of the agreement has been suspended this year, the visible results achieved through it to date suggest that a step backward could have ramifications that reach beyond inter-Korean relations to affect the entire Korean Peninsula peace process.

Changrin Islet, where the coastal artillery drills took place, is part of the West Sea buffer zone where the two sides agreed to suspend all hostile acts in their Sept. 19 military agreement. In the agreement text, they stated that they had “agreed to cease various military exercises aimed at each other along the Military Demarcation Line from November 1, 2018” and to “cease all live-fire and maritime maneuver exercises within the zone north of Deokjeok Island and south of Cho Island in the West Sea.” The agreement’s terms had been honored to date, and the South Korean government had rated the West Sea border region as “safer than ever before.”

Experts are paying particular note to the fact that the coastal artillery drills were ordered by Kim himself. In particular, they are viewing it in the context of Kim’s Oct. 25 visit to Mt. Kumgang -- considered a symbol of inter-Korean cooperation -- to order the demolition of South Korean facilities there. His actions sent the warning that the inter-Korean agreement produced through the Pyongyang summit could be in jeopardy.

Hong Min, director of the North Korea research office at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said Kim “appears to have settled on an approach to inter-Korean relations that involves shutting out or rattling the South -- neutralizing its existing agreements, in other words.”

Breakdown of CMA could be disastrous for inter-Korean relations

North Korea has not actually released footage of the coastal artillery drills. Even a Nov. 25 report on Korean Central Television (KCTV) merely showed Kim with other officials inspecting what was believed to be 76mm coastal guns (firing range 12km). This suggests something of an attempt to moderate the message being sent.

Also drawing attention is that Kim’s breach of the inter-Korean agreement comes ahead of the year-end deadline he set for another North Korea-US summit. While signals toward resuming dialogue between Pyongyang and Washington were exchanged at the time of the recent postponement of joint South Korea-US air exercises, no clear signs of progress have been detected since then. Under the circumstances, the very fact that Kim was visiting the inter-Korean border region signals that even inter-Korean relations are not safe from being impacted by the North Korea-US dialogue impasse. At the same time, this can be turned around to suggest that some leeway for easing the strain between Seoul and Pyongyang can be achieved if progress is made in North Korea-US dialogue.

“It appears likely that North Korea will decide its future approach to inter-Korean relations based on how things go with North Korea-US relations,” said Koo Kab-woo, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

“They’re basically asking the Moon Jae-in administration which side it’s going to take,” Koo suggested.

The recent situation in inter-Korean relations has not been smooth. Between May and October, North Korea held a total of 12 test launches of new short-range missiles, super-large multiple rocket launchers, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). It has also spurned requests from South Korean authorities to discuss ways to develop tourism at Mt. Kumgang.

Given the current strained state of inter-Korean relations, the CMA is effectively the last remaining inter-Korean agreement. It could also be seen as a lifeline sustaining the Moon administration’s Korean Peninsula peace process.

“North Korea seems to be demand an answer from the South on whether it’s going to let go of the last strand holding inter-Korean relations together,” said Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Kyungnam University.

By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer, and Noh Ji-won, staff reporter

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