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Jeong Se-hyun (from left), former unification minister and senior vice chairman for the National Unification Advisory Council; Moon Chung-in, special presidential advisor for unification, foreign affairs, and national security; and Lee Jong-seok, former unification minister and senior analyst at the Sejong Institute. (Kang Chang-kwang, staff photographer)

“North Korea thinks that the South has already violated the Apr. 27 Panmunjom Declaration. We need to resolve the violation of that agreement — launching balloons filled with propaganda leaflets into North Korea — as quickly as possible so as to salvage the Panmunjom Declaration. We’re at a crisis in which inter-Korean relations could regress to conditions before the June 15 Joint Declaration.”

That was the candid advice of Moon Chung-in, special presidential advisor for unification, foreign affairs, and national security; Jeong Se-hyun, former unification minister and senior vice chairman for the National Unification Advisory Council; and Lee Jong-seok, former unification minister and senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute. These three veterans of inter-Korean relations emphasized that, while inter-Korean relations are in a fundamental crisis, quickly enacting a ban on the balloon launches is the first step toward escaping that crisis. Their comments were made in a round-table organized by the Democratic Party at the National Assembly on June 15, celebrating the 20th anniversary of the June 15 Inter-Korean Joint Declaration.

These three figures predicted that North Korea would hold to its hard line on the South for a substantial period of time. “North Korea appears to have concluded that South Korea and the US are attempting to buy time until they can topple the North Korean regime and that it must therefore take stern measures,” Moon Chung-in said. “North Korea intends to tackle head on what it feels to be an existential threat. To borrow a phrase from Lenin, North Korea has basically concluded that South Korea is a ‘weaker link’ [than the US].”

“I think that the chill in inter-Korean relations will become prolonged,” warned Jeong Se-hyun. “In her June 13 statement, Kim Yo-jong said she’d been authorized by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the Workers’ Party of Korea [WPK], and the North Korean state to command the Korean People’s Army. The reason Kim is coming on so strongly [against the South] is because consolidating her position as the second most powerful figure in North Korea depends on how this issue [the propaganda leaflets] is resolved.”

“On top of the severe economic difficulties resulting from intense sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea also faces the question of succession. Since it’s trying to establish Kim Yo-jong’s leadership, this uncomfortable situation [of denouncing South Korea] is bound to continue for some time,” Jeong predicted.

The three figures stressed that, in order to find a way forward, North Korea’s recent comments about South Korea “must be taken at face value rather than being interpreted in the manner of Washington.”

Lee offered the following take on the situation: “Since North Korea is carrying out a fierce campaign at home in addition to taking a firm line on South Korea, the issue of the propaganda leaflets represents an extremely risky situation — we’re riding on the tiger’s back. Right now, the government needs to drop everything else and focus on dealing with the issue of the propaganda leaflets.”

The three figures blamed the South Korean government for being slow to take action despite knowing that North Korea’s pent-up frustration might be triggered by the issue of the balloon launches. A stitch in time saves nine, in other words, but now nine stitches might not be enough to resolve the situation.

“North Korea might try to demolish the Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office on the highly symbolic date of June 25 [when the Korean War began]. Since the government has been dragging its feet, the Democratic Party needs to buy some time by initiating the legislative procedure,” Jeong said, reiterating that “work involves timing and priorities.”

“In a public opinion poll, 60% of respondents said the balloon launches should be banned and that the ban should be put into law. The government needs to take the bull by the horns by demanding to know whether the rights of a handful of defectors launching balloons are worth more than the lives and safety of people residing in border regions,” Lee said.

Nevertheless, the three figures said they’re still hopeful that opportunities remain. “I doubt that Kim Yo-jong, as the second most powerful person in North Korea, took center stage just to take out the trash [the propaganda leaflets]. If the government dawdles for too long, the door could close entirely on inter-Korean relations. But if we deal sternly with the balloon launches, I think we’ll be able to explore the next step,” Lee said.

“Neither Moon Jae-in or Kim Jong-un have criticized each other directly so far, showing that the two leaders have maintained their mutual trust. We need to organize a single-item meeting, rather like the Panmunjom summit on May 26, 2018, which revived the dying sparks of the North Korea-US summit,” proposed Moon Chung-in.

Noting that the right mood and conditions must be in place for the leaders of South and North Korea to sit down together, even behind closed doors, Moon called for diplomats to turn their attention to China and the US. “We need to persuade the US to give us some diplomatic space to improve inter-Korean relations. Since the inter-Korean lines of communication have been cut, we need our diplomats to emphasize to China [that it should convey to North Korea] the first principle of the sunshine policy: that we won’t tolerate North Korean military provocations,” Moon said.

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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