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Moon Chung-in, special advisor to the South Korean president for unification, foreign affairs, and national security, and former Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok discuss inter-Korean relations and North Korea-US relations at the Press Center in Seoul on July 1. (provided by the Korea Press Foundation)

Moon Chung-in, special advisor to the South Korean president for unification, foreign affairs, and national security, said on July 1 that North Korea will complain about any joint military exercises that South Korea and the US may hold in August regardless of their size or nature, and that South and North Korea should hold in-depth deliberations about those exercises in advance.

“North Korea will criticize any joint military exercises South Korea holds with the US, but South Korea has to hold those exercises in order to regain wartime operational control [OPCON] and gain more autonomy. Furthermore, the US seems to be intent on delaying [the OPCON handover],” Moon said during a discussion with Lee Jong-seok, former unification minister and senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, on Wednesday. The discussion was held at the Press Center in downtown Seoul and sponsored by the Korea Press Foundation.

“North Korea needs to recognize that, in the mid- and long-term, [the South Korea-US exercises] are part of a process aimed at peace. They shouldn’t just reflexively criticize them,” Moon added.

In effect, Moon argued that South Korea should seek the North’s understanding for the joint exercises in August, since such exercises are unavoidable for the South Korean military to recover OPCON from the US.

But Lee Jong-seok offered a different opinion. “Suspending the North Korea-US joint exercises serves as an important foundation for making progress on the North Korean nuclear issue, as long as the North is suspending nuclear tests and ICBM launches. President Moon Jae-in needs to resolve [to halt the exercises],” Lee said.

“Asking the other side to give up its nuclear weapons is equivalent to amputating its limbs, so we ought to lay down our own [weapons] before we start talking. If North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons is so critical, our choices and attention should be focused on that.”

“Holding joint exercises isn’t strictly necessary for us to recover wartime OPCON,” Lee added, arguing strongly that South Korea should refrain from holding joint exercises with the US if it wants progress on the North Korean nuclear issue.

US may see breakthrough with N. Korea as boost to election

“The Americans seem to think that, if they can reach a breakthrough through improving relations with North Korea before the election [in November], it will work to their advantage in dealing with China,” Moon said.

“Harry Kazianis, who wrote a column along these lines for Fox News, told me in an email that the White House and the Republican Party are positively considering his ideas,” Moon said. Kazianis is the senior director of Korean studies at the Center for the National Interest, which organized the virtual seminar on June 30 at which White House National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien made a speech.

“Kazianis is a conservative who understands trends in Washington, and he brought up the China factor while talking about holding a North Korea-US summit before the presidential election. There seem to be some encouraging developments [in the US],” Moon said.

Moon offered the following thoughts about the US presidential election. “Trump is extremely fixated on the idea of leaving a historical legacy by reaching a deal with North Korea. We can pin our hopes on that.”

“[Democratic presumptive candidate] Joe Biden served in the US Senate for a long time, and he’s surrounded by bureaucrats and advisors. It won’t be easy [if they take the lead in North Korean policy,” Moon went on to say.

Lee didn’t agree with Moon on this point. “Biden [getting elected] would make things easier for us,” he said. “The Democratic Party tends to be negative on the North Korean nuclear issue, but traditionally it has lent an ear to its allies’ opinions. Rather than waiting until the election, we need to regain our balance and start moving right now.”

“Trump doesn’t have a philosophy about North Korean policy, nor does he have the systematic organization needed to execute that policy. If Trump is reelected, he’ll keep trying to muddle through [in relations with North Korea], which could actually make things more dangerous,” Lee said.

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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