hankyoreh

US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un cross the Military Demarcation Line together in Panmunjom on June 30, 2019. (Hankyoreh archives)

After South Korean President Moon Jae-in spoke of the need to arrange a third summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the next question is whether such a summit could actually be pulled off. The prevailing view is that a summit is unlikely, but North Korea and the US could conceivably reach an understanding in an upcoming meeting.

The general view in the US is that a third summit isn’t feasible. The biggest reason is the ongoing disagreement between North Korea and the US about which should come first — denuclearization or sanctions relief.

During the second Kim-Trump summit in Hanoi in February 2019, the North offered to shutter its Yongbyon nuclear complex in exchange for the US lifting all key sanctions that have been imposed since 2016; the US countered by asking the North to shut down its biological and chemical weapons programs in addition to Yongbyon. Since that time, the two sides have held to their opposing positions.

While insisting that the door to dialogue is open, the US says the ball is in North Korea’s court, pushing Pyongyang to make a bold decision. Given the presidential election coming up in November, it makes more sense for Trump to focus on maintaining the status quo on the Korean Peninsula and ensuring things don’t get worse than to hold a summit, with its accompanying risks.

Reports indicate that Trump strongly thinks a third summit with Kim, if held, would need to culminate in a major agreement. When Moon emphasized the need for a third summit with Kim during his own summit with Trump in Washington in April 2019, Trump said that “meeting once without a deal was not a problem, but no one wanted to walk away twice,” according to a recently published memoir by former White House National Security Advisor John Bolton.

On June 29, US Deputy Secretary of State and Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun predicted that a summit isn’t likely to be held before November because of the presidential election and the COVID-19 crisis. North Korea hasn’t made any clear response.

But if Biegun comes to some kind of understanding in an upcoming meeting with North Korea, the winds could suddenly shift. Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun reported on July 1 that Biegun is trying to arrange a meeting with North Korea at Panmunjom in early July, quoting diplomatic sources from South Korea, the US, and Japan. If that meeting takes place, the newspaper said, Biegun would give North Korea a message from Trump.

The big question here is what that message might contain. If North Korea is intrigued by some aspect of the message, the talks could shift into high gear. That would also mean that the doves, led by Biegun, have seized the initiative in North Korean policy from the hawks, typified by Bolton, following a long detour after Trump walked away from the Hanoi summit.

“It’s possible that a third summit will be held, but I consider it very unlikely. If it is held, however, I think a small deal would be a more positive outcome than a big one,” Frank Aum, a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace, told the Hankyoreh.

A small deal might mean North Korea shutting down its Yongbyon nuclear complex and its Tongchang Village and Punggye Village testing sites in exchange for the US lifting some sanctions. An agreement of that sort probably wouldn’t be scrapped even if Joe Biden wins the election, ushering in a Democratic administration, Aum said.

By Gil Yun-hyung, staff reporter, and Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

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