» Oh Tae-gyu, Editorial Writer.

Twenty years after the disintegration of the Cold War system, the strategic map of the world is once again undergoing major changes. The starting points for this change include the unjustified invasion of Iraq by the U.S., the U.S.’s loss of international trust, the global financial crisis sparked by Wall Street and the weakening of U.S. control over the economy, and the resulting birth of the Barack Obama administration. As the U.S.’s unilateral militarism and economic hegemony recede, we are seeing movement toward multipolarity. These cries are growing in force not only among heavyweights like China, the European Union (EU) and Japan but also among developing countries. Clear indications of this include the talk of a U.S.-China G2 era and a new system of G4 advanced nations, and the attention focusing on the replacement of the G7 with the G-20.

Northeast Asia is no exception to this trend. Indeed, one could call this a major turning point. The image of the three major powers of the U.S., China and Japan grappling for the initiative brings to mind a 21st century version of the “Three Kingdoms” period. The site of the first bout is Obama’s Asia tour, which began on Friday in Japan and is taking him from there to Singapore, China and finally South Korea.

The most interesting thing here is the coordination taking place between the U.S. and Japan. Japan’s Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio and his new Democratic Party of Japan administration is departing from the subordinate posture assumed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) vis-a-vis the U.S. and demanding a relationship on an equal footing. A case in point is the decision to reopen discussions on the relocation of the Futenma Air Station on Okinawa, which was agreed upon when the LDP was in power. In addition, Japan is giving notice of the discontinuation of Japan Self-Defense Forces fueling support for the U.S. military in the Indian Ocean, an amendment to the U.S.-Japan Status of Forces Agreement, and a reduction of the “sympathy budget” for the U.S. Forces in Japan. Amid this atmosphere, Obama has accepted Hatoyama’s suggestions and promises to fully examine the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty as it marks its 50th anniversary next year. This is not the Japan of before that prostrated itself at a mere glance from the U.S.

The U.S. and Japan are also competing to woo China, which has arisen as a new power in economic, political and military areas. They sense that it will be difficult to perform their roles on the international stage without Chinese cooperation. The U.S. took the first step this July when it upgraded its economic strategy dialogue with China, which has centered mainly on economic issues since its inception in 1996, to the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, which encompasses political and diplomatic issues as well. In so doing, it recognizes China as another major axis that will join it in leading the world. The degree to which the U.S. values China can be clearly seen in the way that Obama’s schedule in Asia has him spending less than one day each with allies South Korea and Japan and over three days in China.

Lest it fall behind, Japan is also forcefully working to draw China in. Democratic Party of Japan Secretary General Ozawa Ichiro, the real power behind the scenes in the Hatoyama administration, designated the China-Japan relationship a “partnership in human history for the 21st century” at an exchange meeting with the Chinese Communist Party on Nov. 11. Regarding any major issues between the two nations, Ozawa said that if Japan and China “approach each other with a spirit of reciprocity as the most important two-country relationship in the world, there are no problems they cannot surmount.” His comments suggest Japan is also seeking to move towards cooperation with China rather than confrontation. Hatoyama’s talk about an East Asian community and diplomacy with an emphasis on Asia also represents a strategy that takes into account the decline of the U.S. and the rise of China.

If South Korea does not want to wind up as collateral damage in the battle of major powers, it needs to take heed and closely observe the push and pull among these three countries. It must shift from a geocentric worldview that views situations subjectively to a heliocentric worldview that grasps the international situation objectively. When the South Korean Lee government turns its back on U.S.- and China-led moves for dialogue with North Korea and insists on going it alone with policies of pressure, or when it self-admiringly calls South Korea’s hosting of the 2010 G-20 Summit the “greatest achievement since Dangun” even though the responsibility to host rotates among member nations, all of this is nothing more than wishful thinking out of the misapprehension that South Korea is the center of the world. When the balance of forces among major powers is rocked, what is demanded from a small country is dispassionate judgment, the wisdom to see the future, and tremendous effort. At such times, we must climb up higher and look farther ahead. To survive, you have to look carefully in all directions, not just up and down.

The views presented in this column are the writer’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those of The Hankyoreh.