hankyoreh

Less than a month remains before the US presidential election. The gap in support between candidates Donald Trump and Joseph Biden, particularly in swing states, has narrowed to less than five percentage points. With a predicted voting rate in the 60-70% range for the first time since World War II, eyes are on the final voting rate and the impact of the televised debates. A major variable has recently been added into the mix with Trump testing positive for COVID-19. The outcome of the US presidential election has become even more difficult to predict. One thing is clear: the growing need to prepare for the possibility of Trump being defeated and Biden being elected.

The prevailing view of the scenario of Trump being reelected is an optimistic prediction that negotiations between North Korea and the US will resume. It is significant that North Korea made public Kim Jong-un’s cable to Trump wishing him a speedy recovery. Conversely, observers seem concerned that a scenario where Biden is elected will lead to the impasse in the Korean Peninsula situation dragging out into the long term. In addition to the matter of the two candidates’ differing policy approaches, it will also take some time to establish a minimal foreign affairs and national security lineup and review North Korea policy. This potential vacuum in Washington’s policies on North Korea spells bad news for the Moon Jae-in administration, which reaches the end of its term in 2021.

Trump’s “top-down” approach has certainly been quite efficient in terms of the speed of negotiations, and it made possible a first-ever North Korea-US summit. But the top-down approach has also revealed a fatal flaw: its excessive reliance on Trump and Kim themselves, two highly volatile figures. The South Korean government’s role has been constrained by Trump’s style and his unwillingness to share credit. The two leaders’ overconfidence and improvisational approach to things were major factors in the collapse of their Hanoi summit without a deal being reached.

In that sense, the arrival of a Biden administration could actually represent an opportunity for Seoul. Appraisals of Biden’s foreign affairs and national security approaches have been mixed, but what is most apparent is that he will pursue an approach of restoring alliances, if only at an “anything but Trump” level. Few slogans boast as much political appeal as the pledge to restore the alliances Trump has laid waste to. It’s also something that could be applied to North Korea policy: a call to respect the position of Washington’s allies in Seoul when it comes to North Korea policies, and to ensure a say for the South Korean government. In a word, this amounts to “alliance outsourcing” in North Korea policy.

S. Korea has the most at stake in inter-Korean relations and should therefore take the lead

In reality, most of the participants in the Biden camp -- figures like Tony Blinken and Kurt Campbell -- are former Barack Obama administration figures who shudder when North Korea comes up. There’s a strong perception among them that “breaking even” is the best we can hope for regarding the North Korean nuclear issue. Under the circumstances, they may well see it as preferable to entrust the matter to South Korea -- which knows the North the best and is one of the main stakeholders -- than to endure a “Season 2” of the strategic patience approach.

Alliance outsourcing is also a potential means of handling the issue of the time needed for confirmation hearings for foreign affairs and national security officials and for re-examining North Korea policies. During that same period of at least six months or so, a high-ranking South Korean official could serve as a special envoy on behalf of Seoul and Washington, spearheading negotiations with Pyongyang with the political blessings of both presidents. North Korea, for its part, will be hard-pressed to simply ignore the South Korean government as Biden’s election removes its channel for accessing the US president.

If Trump is re-elected, alliance outsourcing will be needed as a supplement to the top-down strategy. Avoiding a repeat of the Hanoi breakdown will require Seoul to more proactively mediate a deal, and matters cannot be left entirely to the dynamics of North Korea-US summits. An approach at the alliance outsourcing level will also be an effective means of overcoming the Pentagon’s recent attitude of dragging its feet on the wartime operational control (OPCON) issue, citing the COVID-19 pandemic.


The starting point for this alliance outsourcing strategies lies in public diplomacy efforts vis-à-vis the US. We will need to focus our diplomacy and intelligence capabilities on making alliance outsourcing part of the agenda, taking advantage of the special situation with the US presidential election and potential change in administrations to wage a large-scale public diplomacy campaign with Washington politicians and think tanks.

Kim Sung-bae

Then all we will have to do is to use that base of public opinion to forge an agreement at the level of the South Korean and US heads of state.

By Kim Sung-bae, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy

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