hankyoreh

Hwang Joon-bum

The Declaration on the Advancement of South-North Korean Relations, Peace, and Prosperity, which South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il adopted during their summit in Pyongyang on Oct. 4, 2007, specifically mentions declaring the formal end of the Korean War in Article 4: “The South and the North both recognize the need to end the current armistice regime and build a permanent peace regime. The South and the North have also agreed to work together to advance the matter of having the leaders of the three or four parties directly concerned to convene on the Peninsula and declare an end to the war.”

South Korea’s current president Moon Jae-in himself was closely involved in both that summit and statement, given his tenure as Roh’s chief of staff toward the end of his presidency. We should assume that Moon understands better than anyone else the significance of an end-of-war declaration for building peace on the Korean Peninsula and about the importance of passing on a stable Korean Peninsula to the next administration.

Moon today reminds me of Roh 14 years ago. He hasn’t given up his efforts to restart the Korean Peninsula peace process even as his presidency winds down, and he’s strongly pushing to use an end-of-war declaration as a catalyst for that. Moon’s proposal for “three parties of the two Koreas and the US, or four parties of the two Koreas, the US and China [to] come together and declare that the War on the Korean Peninsula is over” in his speech before the UN on Sept. 21 is reminiscent of Roh and Kim’s summit declaration from 2007.

The Panmunjom Declaration that Moon and current North Korean leader Kim Jong-un produced on April 27, 2018, also included a reference to an end-of-war declaration and holding three-party or four-party talks.

As Moon proposed an end-of-war declaration in his third UN speech, echoing previous addresses in 2018 and 2020, the South Korean government was bringing its diplomatic resources to bear on the same issue. Brisk deliberations with the US and other neighboring countries have been conducted by top Korean foreign policy and national security officials including Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong; Suh Hoon, director of the Blue House’s National Security Office; Park Jie-won, director of the National Intelligence Service; and Noh Kyu-duk, the Foreign Ministry’s special representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs.

But despite this energetic campaign, South Korea, North Korea and the US seem to have different approaches in mind. South Korea stresses that an end-of-war declaration would be a political declaration designed to facilitate dialogue with North Korea. In short, it would be aimed at primping the pump for the Korean Peninsula peace process.

But the American stance says that an end-of-war declaration won’t be an option unless North Korea takes a substantial step toward denuclearization, such as providing a roadmap.

South Korean government officials say they’ve reached a greater consensus with the US about an end-of-war declaration. But there’s little reason to think the Biden administration has altered the US position that denuclearization must come before an end-of-war declaration — a position that the US has held since former president George W. Bush told Roh Moo-hyun in their summit in November 2006 that the US was willing to declare an end to the Korean War.

In contrast, North Korea says that no strings should be attached to an end-of-war declaration. Pyongyang has said it’s not willing to exchange its nuclear program for such a declaration. More recently, Kim Jong-un upped the ante by saying the US must relinquish its policy and perspective of “hostility” before making an end-of-war declaration.

If an end-of-war declaration could be made, it could create an opportunity for major change in affairs on the Korean Peninsula. But given the fundamental difference of opinion between the three sides, the reality is that we can’t count on such a declaration taking place anytime soon.

The tricky challenge facing the South Korean government is to first bring the US around to its view and then to persuade North Korea to agree to the idea. And there’s only so much traction that Moon can build, domestically or internationally, when he’s at the tail end of his presidency.

That’s not to say that all conditions are unfavorable. North Korea has expressed its interest in an end-of-war declaration and has hinted at its intention of using such a declaration as a way to engage with South Korea and the US. Considering the value that Joe Biden places on US alliances, the US administration also appears to be seriously engaging with South Korea about Moon’s proposal for an end-of-war declaration, rather than summarily rejecting it.

The path to an end-of-war declaration may be challenging, but there’s no need to deride such efforts. I don’t see a problem with Moon setting the mood for dialogue and peace in his final months and then passing the baton on to his successor. The North Koreans should also be willing to respond to South Korea and the US’ overtures by engaging in dialogue.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]