hankyoreh

Han S. Park

Yoon Suk-yeol, the People Power Party’s presidential nominee, has chosen to trot out the wildly outdated and defunct three-axis defense system and call it his North Korea policy. It is a laughable delusion and a result of ignorance and cluelessness. It is clear as day that choosing this as his policy will only lead to security instability instead of making the Korean Peninsula any safer.

In particular, his comments about a preemptive strike threaten the national consensus that there should never be another war on the Korean Peninsula and is an incendiary remark that could cost millions of innocent lives. Moreover, the possibility of realizing the three-axis system is nil. Yoon’s choice of this as his policy on the North only underscores his ignorance of North Korea.

The first axis of this system, called the Kill Chain, was originally a military strategy designed by the US. It is a military operation developed specifically for wars against terrorists after the 9/11 attacks rather than wars between sovereign states conducted through a declaration of war.

The plan was established based on the US mindset that terrorists should be demonized and that such demons should be eradicated. This logic justifies any means or methods of killing such villains and doesn’t take into consideration any moral norms or the ethics of war.

The demonization of North Korea, a strategy that some forces in the US and South Korea have persistently pursued, seems to be aimed at justifying this Kill Chain plan targeting North Korea.

By painting North Korea as a terrorist organization and a “demon” that must be eliminated, the Kill Chain plan would use a preemptive strike to neutralize North Korea’s military facilities, including its missiles, and employ a “decapitation” operation to remove its leadership from power. All this would be justified in the eyes of the plan’s proponents.

However, since in reality, North Korea is not a terrorist organization but a sovereign state, the Kill Chain operation would be a violation of international law if carried out. Then there’s the fact that the demonization of North Korea is a fiction cooked up by the US to help it achieve its own political and economic goals.

By demonizing North Korea, the US bolstered its justification for keeping US forces in South Korea. Moreover, by trotting out the pretext that it protects South Koreans from the “evil” that is North Korea, the US has made its military presence on the peninsula out to be something “sacred.”

It also bears repeating that a preemptive strike has virtually no chance of being successful. North Korea already has an advanced weapons system that goes far beyond what we are already aware of and it’s practically impossible to upgrade the current surveillance and reconnaissance capability to accurately monitor the entire North Korean region.

Not only are all of North Korea's missiles and military facilities stored underground, but the North has upgraded its ballistic missiles from those using liquid fuel, which take time to refuel, to ones that use solid fuel, meaning that they can be launched immediately.

Furthermore, it is a fact that North Korea has nearly completed its development of technology that allows ballistic missiles to be launched from a mobile launcher — meaning they can be launched from anywhere rather than from a launcher at a fixed location.

Another reason why a preemptive strike strategy would not produce any results is that North Korea has already established a perfect evacuation system to prepare for any outside attacks. There is simply no way to know where the target of the preemptive strike is hiding.

Pyongyang’s 34-kilometer subway system doubles as a huge underground evacuation facility built in preparation for war and air strikes. Compared to the subways of Seoul, the Pyongyang subway is built at a depth of 150 to 200 meters underground, meaning it can serve as an air raid shelter during wartime.

In addition, large and small air defense shelters are scattered throughout downtown Pyongyang, and a considerable number of coal mines outside Pyongyang have been converted into underground evacuation facilities that can even withstand nuclear weapons attacks.

The second axis of this plan is the Korea Air and Missile Defense, or KAMD, which includes the establishment of a Korean-style missile defense system and the additional deployment of a THAAD battery. But the second axis is also insufficient to defend against North Korean missile attacks.

Considering that North Korea's missile capabilities, including its recent development of hypersonic missiles, are increasingly advanced, the tactic of intercepting and dismantling missiles in the air is near impossible with current military technology.

The important point here, however, is that if North Korea attacks South Korea in retaliation for a preemptive strike, then the focus should not be on North Korea’s missiles.

When I visited North Korea, I had the chance to have a conversation with Pak Yong-su, the North Korean official who made the infamous remark about North Korea’s capability to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire” back in 1994.

We must face the reality that Seoul, a city of 10 million people who each have gas piped into their homes and where gas stations can be found on every corner, is practically a powder keg that could easily become a sea of fire if North Korea uses any kind of low-grade conventional weapon. In reality, North Korea really has no need to use more advanced weapons, such as missiles, to do major damage to Seoul.

Finally, the third axis is the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation, or KMPR. This strategy comes with the deployment of ground forces to North Korea, who would carry out the so-called “decapitation operation.” In reality, Massive Punishment and Retaliation implies an all-out war and would be an act of mutual suicide between the South and the North. Does Yoon really think that the US would send ground forces to North Korea under such circumstances? I assure you, they would not. In the end, it is clear that this would only result in countless young, innocent South Korean lives being lost.

A person who intends to hold the highest position in the country cannot and should not be warmongering. The tragedy of fratricidal conflict must never be allowed to take place again on the Korean Peninsula. In the event of war, it will be South Korean lives that are lost.

If Yoon isn’t prepared to personally enter North Korea, gun in hand, he should stop warmongering by threatening preemptive strikes and the deployment of ground forces.

Anyone who even mentions a preemptive strike is unfit to be in the running for president.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]