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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 25, 2019, during their first summit, held in Vladivostok, Russia. (AFP/Yonhap)

A North Korean drone circled around in Seoul’s airspace before returning to North Korea. What if it had carried a small nuclear bomb? The mere thought is blood-chilling.

This provocation is unusual in that it was carried out at a time when tensions on the Korean Peninsula are on the rise.

North Korea shot off missiles as if they were fireworks in 2022 and New Year’s 2023. It’s been a while since they’ve taken to slyly alluding to the possibility of their seventh nuclear test.

Leader Kim Jong-un vowed in his New Year’s address to produce many tactical nuclear weapons that could target South Korea. Anxiety over national security is mounting.

North Korea’s behavior is not wholly unrelated to the war in Ukraine. North Korea has been showing off its military solidarity with Russia since the beginning of the conflict in eastern Europe.

The two countries renewed a Soviet-era alliance treaty in February 2000 that stipulated that if one party were to “suffer armed attack by any State or coalition of States and thus find itself in a state of war, the other Contracting Party shall immediately extend military and other assistance with all the means at its disposal.” In the updated version of the treaty, the level of intervention was changed to “immediate contact,” but the nature of the alliance has not changed.

When President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea in July 2000, there were reportedly conversations insinuating that if North Korea and Russia, countries that are in possession of strong missiles, join forces, they could most certainly defeat the Americans.

In 2014, the two countries agreed to allow Russian warships to enter the North’s port of Najin to protect merchant ships. At the end of April 2019, the Kremlin reaffirmed the two countries’ alliance after the bilateral summit. In August 2022, Vladivostok Port was re-designated as a military port.

When Russia proposed four conditions that discussed the use of nuclear weapons, two weeks later, North Korea also legislated five conditions on the use of nuclear weapons.

Just as Ukraine is unable to carry out a war without the United States, Russia is also able to keep the United States in check with its ally, North Korea. If the Russian military is put at a disadvantage, it can use tactical nuclear weapons, and if that happens, North Korea will also be put in a position to respond.

The special demands caused by the war that North Korea will enjoy should also be highlighted. In the international community, there is no business that is more active than the arms market. Business is booming for US arms dealers in the wake of the Ukraine war. Korean defense companies cannot merely sit on their hands in this situation.

To North Korea, which finds itself in the same situation as South Korea, missiles are the most competitive export. The war in Ukraine is a golden opportunity to earn foreign currency and improve weapons performance. It makes sense that there are claims that North Korean missiles have recently made their way into Russia.

Russia has declared a so-called “special military operation” and is raining down missiles on Ukrainian infrastructure like an unrelenting storm. It is not enough to operate weapons factories 24 hours a day. Of course, North Korean missiles would look like they have a lot of merit. The weapons systems are the same, so Russian soldiers would have no trouble operating them, and they have low production costs. They’re also easy to transport because the two countries share a border. The reports made by Japanese media about railway transportation are not groundless.

Besides this, North Korea is also sending its workers to the Donbas region to aid in post-war recovery efforts. But it’s important to remember that such a workforce can be transitioned into a military force at any time. For example, we can’t rule out the possibility of the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, recruiting North Koreans as soldiers or using North Korean-made weapons.

North Korea would also gain from this by being able to test new weapons and by having their soldiers get real on-the-ground war experience. This is exactly what Russia gained by taking part in Syria’s civil war.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula recently is even more serious than it was back in 2010, when North Korea shelled the South’s Yeonpyeong Island. In particular, the situation is reaching crisis levels as it expands into a two-way trilateral confrontation with North Korea, China, and Russia on one side versus South Korea, the US, and Japan on the other.

As such, North Korea is maximizing the benefits of the Ukraine war by having its two socialist allies by its side in a way that was unseen even during the Cold War.

On the western front is Russia and on the eastern front is North Korea, both carrying out a cooperative and aligned strategy aimed at keeping the US in check. If evidence is found that South Korea provided weapons to Ukraine, then Russia will use North Korea to retaliate against the South.

North Korea’s drone provocation is only the beginning. If we’re not careful, an unimaginable catastrophe could reach the Korean Peninsula as well. Or are these simply unfounded fears?

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]