[Column] Korea is walking into a trap by buying into America’s fearmongering about China

Posted on : 2023-03-10 17:40 KST Modified on : 2023-03-10 17:40 KST
If we abstract the multifaceted and complicated US-China relationship into the metaphor of Thucydides’ trap, it is no different than rendering it into a spell
Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon prepares to fly to Europe for discussions on immigration policy on March 7, appearing at the Incheon International Airport while carrying a copy of Thucydides’ “The History of the Peloponnesian War.” (Yonhap)
Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon prepares to fly to Europe for discussions on immigration policy on March 7, appearing at the Incheon International Airport while carrying a copy of Thucydides’ “The History of the Peloponnesian War.” (Yonhap)
By Kim Jong-dae, visiting scholar at Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies

It seems that President Yoon Suk-yeol wholeheartedly believes that, at some point during his term as president, there will be a catastrophic collision between the US and China.

During a US Senate hearing in March 2021, then-Commander of US Indo-Pacific Command Philip Davidson made waves when he declared that China could invade Taiwan by 2027.

The prophecy is based on the belief that, if Washington and its allies encircle and pressure Beijing, the “Chinese dream” of building a “first-rate, advanced state” will collapse, pushing China to take aggressive military action against Taiwan so as to prevent further fall from grace. As it happens, 2027 will coincide with the final year of Yoon’s term.

“What, a war during my term?” one could imagine Yoon thinking. “Doesn’t that mean that North Korea, armed as it is with nuclear missiles, will also start provoking us? If war is imminent, we’d better turn our backs on China without blinking an eye and line up with the US. The US is going to win anyway, so it’s best to get on their good side as fast as possible. OK, so we’ll bow down to Japan, build a trilateral collective security system, establish a joint trilateral plan against Chinese threats in Taiwan and the South China Sea, build a missile defense system that links the THAAD radar in Seongju to Japanese radars, and also provide arms to Ukraine. What are we waiting for?”

There’s good reason to think that Yoon may indeed go through such a thought process.

Thucydides’ “History of the Peloponnesian War,” which Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon was seen carrying with him on his departure from South Korea on Tuesday, is the perfect book to reinforce the notion that the US and China will inevitably clash. The term “Thucydides’ trap,” which originated from the book, is a convincing argument that conflict will arise between a hegemonic power and a rising power that challenges it. At the end of the book, Thucydides states that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

When there are signs of a power shift, or a reversal of power, between the US and China, both countries begin to believe that a war between them is inevitable, and that belief rouses the gods of war. Sparta and Athens clashed over that very same reason — the US-China conflict during this power transition is no exception. What Han demonstrated by flaunting his reading material is his sympathy and support for Yoon as the president races toward the US alliance.

The key players in Korea’s current leadership are bewitched by the thought that war is inescapable, and as such, they are cooperating with the US and Japan at the expense of national pride and identity. Any idea becomes akin to witchcraft when it is treated as something to be wholeheartedly believed in, rather than to be analyzed and examined critically.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, and South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin (left to right) give a statement on Feb. 29 condemning a missile launch by North Korea. (Noh Ji-won/The Hankyoreh)
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, and South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin (left to right) give a statement on Feb. 29 condemning a missile launch by North Korea. (Noh Ji-won/The Hankyoreh)

This administration, which has faced its share of controversies related to shamanism and fortune telling since its inception, conveniently bypasses the processes of public debate and deliberation so as to create policies that do not have to be examined under the discerning lens of reason and explained to the people. There is no logical explanation for such an urgent pursuit of trilateral security cooperation, or a trilateral collective security system, which has unclear purposes and benefits.

We may believe that the North Korean threat is the reason behind trilateral cooperation, but the administration thinks differently. South Korea-US-Japan cooperation is not a butter knife wielded to deal with North Korea, but a butcher’s knife for countering China.

If we abstract the multifaceted and complicated US-China relationship into the metaphor of Thucydides’ trap, it is no different than rendering it into a spell. The current US alliance policy inflates the threat of China to stoke fear in its allies, and, behind the scenes, engages in nationalism to plunder jobs and capital from these same allies. There’s no room for interpretation: Yoon has been totally bewitched by this spell of theirs.

Recently, special fighter planes for decapitation operations dubbed “swans of death,” and stealth bombers have been flying over the Korean Peninsula. In the modern day, in which stealth bombers, missiles, and drones are abundant, it is strange to think about a war that relies on old strategic bombers with hours-long flight paths.

Since the Vietnam War, strategic bombing has disappeared from modern warfare. We are also being alerted of the South Korea-US joint landing drills. What is the meaning of old-fashioned amphibious warfare, which does nothing but bring many casualties? These drills are out of touch with modern warfare and are only effective in creating grand military spectacles that will help them become viral. They are mere military parades and military witchcraft.

The ever-so-powerful US is, with these military performances, trying to awe its follower, South Korea. A stealthy, avaricious hand sneaks into the bag of sweets that its follower is holding, taking from it semiconductors, batteries, and electric vehicles.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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