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President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea (right) speaks with President Joe Biden of the US and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan on May 21 on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima. (Yonhap)

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In a recent interview with the Nikkei, Japan\'s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida responded to questions on Taiwan with careful adherence to pre-prepared responses. According to Kishida, \"the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait [are] critical not just for our country, but for the whole international community.\"

His cautious approach to Japan\'s relations with China, as observed by the newspaper, starkly contrasts the strained relations South Korea maintains with China, exacerbated by President Yoon Suk-yeol\'s comments in late April, blaming Chinese “attempts to change the status quo by force” for cross-strait tensions, and comparing China-Taiwan relations to the relationship between the two Koreas.

Kishida\'s diplomatic strategy has come under the spotlight amid rivalry between the United States and China and the reshaping of the international order. Having served as postwar Japan\'s longest-tenured foreign minister from 2012 to 2017, Kishida played a key role in promoting the country’s “free and open Indo-Pacific” strategy. After becoming prime minister in October 2021, he boosted military spending and repositioned Japan as a pivotal player in US global strategy, under the banner of \"realism diplomacy for a new era.\"

In dealings with South Korea, Kishida has repeatedly managed to secure concessions from Yoon. The prime minister has also raised Japan\'s global profile by visiting Ukraine and hosting the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima in May. His diplomatic strategy aims not only to strengthen Japan\'s alliance with the US, but to foster a broad and complex network of relationships with NATO, India, ASEAN, and Australia.

On May 27, Kishida even signaled his readiness for a summit with North Korea, showing his intent to play the role of “situation manager” on the Korean Peninsula. The recent surge of major global investors and semiconductor companies into Japan also suggests that the country stands to benefit from US-China friction.

What will Kishida’s next move be? There is a high possibility that he will seek to maximize Japan’s economic benefit by moving toward a “reciprocal diplomacy” strategy with China.

During the recent G7 summit, Kishida seemed proactive in rallying a coordinated response against China\'s “attempts to change the status quo and its economic coercion,” but also continued to engage with China through foreign ministerial meetings and parliamentary diplomacy. According to Jee Man-soo, a research fellow at the Korea Institute of Finance, the key focus in international relations for the latter half of the year is the question of when Kishida will visit China. He added that “after the G7 summit, Japan and the US have been vying to be the first to go to China and reap larger economic benefits.”

US officials, from Biden’s national security advisor to the CIA director, have also been initiating contact with China, indicating a shift toward negotiations. Kim Han-kwon, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, observes a trend where countries like Japan and Australia and European nations are expanding their “strategic autonomy” with respect to China, having already strengthened strategic cooperation with the US on security and human rights.

Kim highlighted the need to watch Australia closely, which, “after having strengthened its alliance with the US and brought in technologies such as nuclear submarines, is now seeking to increase its economic cooperation with China while at the same time enhance its ‘strategic autonomy.’” While competition between the US and China is expected to be a long-term game, major countries are striving to maximize their interests through pressure, negotiation, and trade with China.

South Korea\'s foreign policy appears to deviate from this trend, however. The Yoon administration, primarily focused on relations with the US and Japan, seems to lack a clear China strategy.

High-ranking diplomatic and security officials within the Yoon administration insist that South Korea\'s relations with China are unproblematic and that any issues will be resolved at a prospective South Korea-China-Japan summit later this year. These claims, along with Yoon\'s provocative remarks seemingly made to demonstrate loyalty to the US, have only exacerbated tensions with China.

Following these comments, it was reported that on May 22, Liu Jinsong, the Director-General of the Department of Asian Affairs of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, visited Seoul to inform the Yoon administration of China\'s “Four Noes” policy. This policy outlines China\'s stance that high-level exchanges and cooperation on Korean Peninsula issues would be impossible if South Korea interferes with China\'s “core interests,” like the Taiwan issue, and moves toward a unilateral pro-US/pro-Japan foreign policy.

South Korea should not be pressured to tow China’s line in terms of the South Korea-China relationship, but it is crucial for it to engage in intense negotiations with China while staying true to its own principles and strategies. When considering issues such as the North Korean nuclear issue, the situation on the Korean Peninsula, the ongoing “chip war” between the US and China, and the restructuring of supply chains, it is important to examine the kind of diplomatic approach Korea is taking to address these challenges and to resolve the country’s 15-month consecutive trade deficit.

Pursuing confrontation with China in step with the US, without considering South Korea’s own objectives and strategic autonomy, cannot be considered a viable foreign policy.

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