hankyoreh

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

On Sept. 18, 1931, Seishiro Itagaki and Kanji Ishiwara, officers in Japan’s Kwantung Army, staged an explosion at a section of the Manchurian Railroad running through Liutiao, near the Chinese city of Mukden (today Shenyang, Liaoning Province). Next, the officers alleged that the explosion had been the act of Chinese troops under Zhang Xueliang and initiated military operations that resulted in the conquest of Manchuria. The Great Depression had thrown Japan into turmoil, and Japan sought to escape that crisis by invading other countries. Subsequently, all of East Asia was engulfed in the flames of war.

On Dec. 20, 2018, a Japanese naval patrol plane buzzed South Korean destroyer ROKS Gwanggaeto the Great while it was performing rescue operations for a North Korean fishing ship in distress. After this threatening flyby, Japan launched an international public relations war, posting a video criticizing South Korea for aiming its fire control radar at the patrol plane. Then on Jan. 18, 22 and 23, Japanese patrol planes made more threatening flybys near South Korean naval vessels.

Japan’s actions have been brazen. The current developments had been unimaginable following South Korea and Japan’s integration into the American network of alliances in East Asia. These are unnerving signals that the Japanese government under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Japanese right wing are concocting a new strategy. Their actions inevitably raise the specter of the wars of aggression waged by Japan because of increasing indications that postwar Japan failed to adequately suppress the militaristic far right and forces who held that Japan’s interests were best served by invading and conquering the Korean Peninsula.

After South Korea’s economic development and democratization, there was an effort in Japan in the 1990s to apologize for its historical deeds and make amends with South Korea. But there was fierce pushback from the Japanese right wing, which rolled back the apologies and reconciliation and began to move toward rearmament. Abe rose to power by slamming North Korea for its abduction of Japanese citizens, and his entire political career can be summarized as dealing with the abduction issue and recreating the imperial glory of Japan by carrying out the constitutional revision dreamed of by his maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi. Abe has exploited fear of North Korea and China to consolidate the right wing and to promote rearmament.

But after Donald Trump won the presidency in the US and moved forward with dialogue with North Korea, the narrative of the North Korean threat has lost its punch. Trump has asked US allies to pay more for defense; withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, in which Japan had invested a great deal of effort; and asked Japan to make a free trade agreement with the US. Abe’s signature economic initiative, known as Abenomics, has an uncertain future.

Abe has been forced to revise his strategy. He has moved toward rapprochement with China and Russia. In Oct. 2018, Abe visited Beijing for his first summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping since the conflict over the Senkaku Islands (called the Diaoyu Islands in China). He needs a new enemy. Stirring up anger inside Japan about the South Korean Supreme Court’s decision to award compensation to victims of compulsory mobilization and provoking a military conflict with South Korea are moves with multiple benefits: increasing support for the Abe administration, galvanizing public opinion to support a constitutional revision and boosting the strength of the Japan Self-Defense Forces. Japan seems set on prolonging its offensive against South Korea as long as the US doesn’t seem poised to intervene.

In that case, what is Abe’s weak point? Let’s turn Abe’s strategic calculations against him. First, while we should respond firmly to Japan’s provocations, we must remember that losing our temper or allowing an unintended clash to occur means falling into Abe’s trap. Second, we need to develop inter-Korean relations, promote denuclearization and reconciliation between North Korea and the US, and pursue a peace regime in Northeast Asia.

head of the Unification Diplomacy Team

As we counter Abe’s efforts to incite jingoistic hatred between South Korea and Japan, it’s important to remember that a large number of people in Japan oppose Abe’s policies and constitutional reform and to create room for working with them toward a peace regime and nuclear-free zone without getting caught up in anti-Japanese sentiment. Let’s remember that the coexistence and prosperity of South and North Korea and the establishment of a peace regime in East Asia will sweep the rug out from under the Cold Warriors in both South Korea and Japan.

By Park Min-hee, head of the Unification Diplomacy Team

Please direct comments or questions to [englishh@hani.co.kr]