hankyoreh

Timo Fleckenstein

By Timo Fleckenstein, associate professor of social policy at the London School of Economics

As in other parts of the world, Europeans closely followed the real-life “drama” of the US Presidential election. Glued to TV and smartphone screens, the vast majority of Europeans waited for the announcement that Joe Biden had turned the last couple of states needed to gain a majority in the Electoral College — this oddity in the American constitution that could allow the “loser” in the direct popular vote to move into the White House. But history did not repeat itself on this occasion, and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris made it over the finishing line.

One could hear a loud sigh of relief in European capitals where a change of leadership in the US has been long and desperately awaited. The relationship between the Trump administration and Europe was openly under strain. Certainly, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, often described as the de-facto leader of Europe, is well known for her concerns over the Trump presidency. Most recently in the context of the global pandemic, Merkel noted with unusual candor that “the limits of populism and denial of basic truths are being laid bare.”

Populism also fuelled the escalating trade conflict with Europe when Trump imposed tariffs of US$7.5 billion on European luxury goods, such as German cars, in response to alleged unfair state subsidies for European airplane maker Airbus. With the new “dream team” of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, Europe hopes to return to transatlantic normality. But what can European leaders expect from the new occupants of the White House?

Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, sought proximity to Trump, hoping that “charming” the president would deliver the much-desired trade deal between the UK and the US. After the departure from the EU, Britain is in desperate need to “line up” trade agreements. But the British charm offensive against the Trump White House did not escape Biden, and he has previously described Johnson as “a physical and emotional clone” of Donald Trump. Also, and possibly more importantly, Biden has the strong view that Brexit was a historic mistake for both UK and American interests in Europe.

In this context, the President-elect, proud of his Irish ancestry, has great concerns that Johnson’s current Brexit strategy might create a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Such violation of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which has brought peace to Ireland, is widely seen as making a UK-US trade deal impossible — the warnings from the President-elect and his Democratic allies on Capitol Hill could not be clearer. So, for the time being, the UK government might not benefit greatly from the new US administration.

EU leaders do not have the burden of Brexit to restart the relationship with the new White House. In the UK, senior officials in the foreign office expect that French President Emmanuel Macron will get a lot more American attention; and also the German chancellor is widely expected to “return from the cold” after four long years of a Trump presidency. Merkel and other European leaders are keen on working with the new president to tackle the global pandemic, and the American return to the World Health Organization (WHO) is much anticipated. Reversing Trump’s decision to leave the WHO can also be seen rebuking the turn away from multilateralism, which also strained the US relationship with their European partners in NATO.

Surely, it cannot be expected that Biden will not continue pushing the Europeans to increase their defense spending (meeting the agreed target of 2% of GDP), but German Foreign Minister Heiko Mass, for instance, does not think that defense spending will be Biden’s focus, and certainly a different tone and style from the new administration is anticipated.

Europeans have also great hopes that Biden will rejoin the world in their fight against climate change, and Biden has pledged to reverse Trump’s decision to leave the Paris Agreement. COVID-19 might have pushed Greta Thunberg out of the spotlight for the time being, but the dangers of climate change remain on the mind of Europeans. Next year’s UN climate change conference in the Scottish city of Glasgow is very much hoped to provide new momentum with a new US president who recognizes the importance of climate change unlike his predecessor. Having said this, economic pressures remain for any US president, as for other governments.

A new approach is also needed in trade policy, but here European leaders might find a new president who needs to prioritize domestic “imperatives.” Whilst Biden might extend olive branches to reset strained relations by removing certain tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, he also faces the challenge of protecting American livelihoods, especially in the face of the pandemic-induced economic crisis. Not quite “America First,” but Biden campaigned with “Buy American,” and he has pledged to penalize US companies that move jobs abroad. Does this sound somewhat familiar?

A lot will change with Biden, and America will become a more reliable partner for the rest of the world — a great relief to all of us! But after the initial jubilation, Europeans, as governments and people elsewhere, need to be realistic in their expectations. Trump will be soon gone, but the 70 million Americans who voted for him will not disappear by the time of Biden’s inauguration in January. The obvious divisions in the country will be a big challenge for the Biden administration, and they will affect the rest of the world too.

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]