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Jiro Yamaguchi

By Jiro Yamaguchi, professor of law at Hosei University

The biggest issue in Japanese politics today is whether to hold the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, which are scheduled to begin on July 23. Japan has vaccinated a smaller percentage of its public for COVID-19 than any other advanced economy even as the virus continues to spread rapidly, led by viral variants, threatening the collapse of the country’s medical system.

In Osaka and Hokkaido, numerous people infected with COVID-19 have died in hotels or at home as they waited for space to open up at hospitals. Some fear that, if the Olympics were to be held under these circumstances, Japan’s already inadequate medical system would be reoriented on the Olympics, giving less priority to Japanese lives. Several polls have shown that 70-80% of Japanese think the Olympics should be delayed or canceled.

But Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has reiterated his intention to hold the Olympics as planned. The Japanese government has gotten to the point where it can no longer make rational policy decisions. The current state of politics is reminiscent of Japan’s leaders shortly before the country’s defeat in World War II. The leaders of today share a number of attitudes with the leaders 76 years ago.

First, Japan’s leaders manipulate language to cover up reality.

Recently, the Japanese press has avoided the phrase “collapse of the medical system.” Instead, they’ve said that people who are quarantining at home because of a shortage of hospital beds are receiving “home care.”

That’s similar to how Japan’s Imperial General Headquarters, Japan’s supreme command under the direct control of the emperor, described defeats and retreats as “advances.”

Second, leaders push forward their policy as a fait accompli. During World War II, Japanese military leaders resisted withdrawing troops from conquered territory in China because doing so would mean all their struggles and sacrifices had been in vain. Our assumptions about reality can prevent us from correcting course.

Japan’s political leaders are shackled to such assumptions about the Tokyo Olympics. Calling off the Olympics would require them to write off all the money spent so far as a loss.

That’s what economists call a sunk cost. The occurrence of sunk costs is key evidence that policymakers have made an incorrect forecast.

But the worst manager of all is the one who keeps pouring resources into a doomed project out of fear over sunk costs, thus making the situation even worse. Suga is behaving like the worst kind of manager in his approach to the Olympics.

A third way the present is similar to World War II is that Japan’s leaders are egging the public to protect national pride as part of a scheme to achieve their ends.

Suga’s determination to hold the Olympics is connected with upcoming events on the political calendar. Since the terms of lawmakers in the House of Representatives end this October, Suga wants to hold general elections when the public is thrilled over the performance of Japanese athletes in the Olympics.

Even when medical experts bring up the risks of holding the Olympics, Suga ignores the scientific data in favor of his own subjective belief that everything will be okay. That reminds me of wartime slogans such as “decisive battle on the home islands” and the “glorious death of 100 million people.”

If Suga were to make the courageous political decision of setting aside the Olympics in favor of people’s lives, it would increase his credibility as a politician. But he doesn’t seem capable of such calculations.

After its terrible sacrifices in the war it lost 76 years ago, Japan established democracy and created a politics based on the will of the people and policies that are scientifically reasonable.

But Japan didn’t change the political system that had led to poor policy decisions. The fanaticism that had lain dormant inside Japanese politics like a virus has now returned to the surface.

However, Japan has freedom of the press today, which wasn’t the case 76 years ago. When the government adopts wrong policies, the press is always able to offer criticism.

A handful of newspapers have printed editorials advocating the cancelation of the Olympics. That discussion needs to continue in the coming weeks.

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